Biden Administration Announces National Security Threat. This Raises Some Questions.
On Wednesday, there was a big announcement from the House Intelligence Committee. The House Intelligence Committee chair tweeted a statement suggesting that there was a serious national security threat the American public needed to be made aware of.
This freaked everybody out because when vague national security related threats are made, suggesting they are serious enough they need to be declassified, everybody starts to have some palpitations.
As it turns out, it appears there is intelligence suggesting Russia is going to attempt to deploy a nuclear anti-satellite system in space.
Apparently, the Russians haven’t done it yet; the system is under development. We don’t know how far the technology has gone.
There are two questions: What would it mean if Russia actually were to do so? And, why are we finding out about this now?
To the first question: Presumably, America’s satellite technology would be seriously threatened, although if a nuke is detonated in space, it would not have the same ramifications as if it were detonated at high altitude. A nuclear weapon feeds on the air around it; it requires oxygen in order for it to continue expanding.
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So if a nuclear weapon explodes in a vacuum — if in space — it doesn’t have quite the same impact as a nuclear weapon at high altitude. Effectively, radiation is blasted out, which significantly damages or degrades pretty much all the satellites within the immediate orbit. It would create a sort of perennial hotspot in that place or cause satellites that pass through it to be significantly damaged.
As the largest single investor in space capabilities, the United States could lose $200 billion per year of real gross output from its space assets. Military space assets would be degraded over time. A nuclear weapon in space would do great economic damage.
Is this the kind of serious national security threat that requires everybody to go on panic mode for a full day where everybody is thinking, Oh, my God. I need my bunker? No.
Now to the second question, which is: Why are we finding out about this now?
Possibly to induce more support for Ukraine. I have sympathy for the idea of giving aid to Ukraine, but I don’t think that amount of aid should be $60 billion. I don’t believe the United States has an interest in allowing Russia to simply walk over the entirety of Ukraine. I think that has significant negative geopolitical ramifications for the United States and American citizens.
But scaring the American people into green-lighting an aid package by releasing information about a serious national security threat doesn’t seem like a great tactic to get people in your corner.
Ultimately, it’s going to alienate more people than it draws.
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