Douglas Macgregor: The wishful analyst

With his calm voice and authoritative demeanor, Col. Douglas Macgregor gives the initial impression of a knowledgeable and dispassionate observer/analyst. Since the beginning of 2022, the Colonel, with an impeccable ‘American hero’ background has become the “go-to” analyst for many in the American conservative media, including Tucker Carlson.

Carlson is a top professional and no doubt, has a decent-size crew of researchers even when not on Fox. Given these resources, it’s inexplicable that he is charmed by Macgregor, who has not put a foot right in his analysis and predictions since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and actually, even prior to that.

Clearly, Macgregor’s predictions attract those who wish them to come true.

Let’s examine Macgregor’s analysis and predictions in the real world, where the war is close to entering its third year and where Ukraine is on the offensive, however slow, costly and uncertain.

Image: Col. Douglas Macgregor. YouTube screen grab.

Two months before Putin ordered the Russian troops over the borders of Ukraine with Russia and Belarus, Macgregor wrote in The National Interest predicting that the “Russian ground forces would [probably] reach their operational objectives along the Dnieper River in as little” as three days. Perhaps he was listening to the Russian State TV talk-show hosts’ disastrous bravado that became a popular Ukrainian meme of “Kyiv in three days,” though as far as I know, Macgregor doesn’t speak Russian.

On February 27, 2022, three days after the start of the war he said on Fox News (0’37”): “…the battle in Eastern Ukraine is really almost over. All the Ukrainian troops are being largely surrounded and cut off…the Russians will ultimately annihilate them.”

In early March 2002, Macgregor explained why his previous prophesy of “three days” did not happen, allowing the Russians ten more days. After a Putinesque fit of cough (2’01”), Macgregor explains (2’08”): “At the first five days, the Russian forces, I think, frankly were too gentle…another ten days this should be completely over…but the eastern part of Ukraine is firmly in Russian hands…They are destroying Ukrainian forces”. And then (2’23”), Macgregor lets it all out: “Russia…wants a neutral Ukraine. This [the war] could have ended days ago if [Zelensky] accepted that.” And then, Macgregor casually continues, “they can adjust the borders.” So that’s what it is—not “NATO NATO NATO” or “neutral Ukraine.” Rather, it is a thuggish strong-arm land-robbery, the true aim of the Russian Federation. Macgregor was too honest this time.

Ten days later, Macgregor went to Tucker, then still at Fox and with, Tucker’s furrowing bushy brows and nodding approval, Macgregor kept his line (36’35”): “The war is really over for the Ukrainians…they have been grounded to bits.” That’s year and a half ago.

In July 2022, more than a year ago, Macgregor told Charlie Kirk (2’45”): “The war, with the exception of Kharkiv and Odessa…is largely over.”

And finally, facts and numbers. During the most recent, “seminal” interview with Tucker, Macgregor claimed (21’58”) that US advanced weapons such as the anti-tank Javelin missile that was supplied to Ukraine was sold to Mexican cartels. This claim is based on a photo of a Mexican gang-member with what looks like an anti-tank missile. Embarrassingly for Macgregor, a supposedly military expert, the photo he refers-to is not a Javelin but a Swedish AT-4 missile (relevant tweet shown at 22’27” and here) which is clearly a training-dummy (the bright-yellow marking-ring denotes a non-operative dummy for instruction) and is likely empty with no dummy-missile in it.

Then, Macgregor unflinchingly states in the same interview (see 6’45”) that 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers were KIA since the start of the war. This implies that the number of wounded exceeds a million. That would mean the Ukrainian army’s irretrievable losses exceed its initial strength! Rolling back to Macgregor’s September 2022 analysis above, he effectively claimed that the number of dead Ukrainian soldiers has quadrupled in less than 11 months, but maybe he forgot what he said then.

The difference between amateur and professional prophets is that the amateurs commit to what will happen and when it will happen while the professionals only warn of “fire and brimstone” in some foggy future but never give a date or a time. Macgregor should heed that and stop the wishful bias that clouds his analysis.