Levin-Stevens primary gets more heated, but candidates’ approaches differ
The heat is turned up on the interparty brawl between Democratic U.S. Reps. Andy Levin and Haley Stevens, with their campaigns sharply diverging in their messaging to change voters’ minds four weeks out from the Aug. 2 primary in Michigan’s 11th District.
Levin, amid attacks from an outside group, has been more aggressive in his approach and has started going negative against Stevens, painting his opponent as a flip-flopper taking donations from corporate political action committees and voting based on what’s most politically convenient.
He’s framed the contest as progressive Democrat vs. centrist Democrat, pitching himself as the true progressive. His messaging stresses his priorities to protect workers, abortion and voting rights. He’s also hitting areas where his positions differ from Stevens, such as shutting down Enbridge’s Line 5 oil pipeline running through the Straits of Mackinac and adopting a single-payer health care system.
Stevens’ ads and other outreach have largely focused on her record, including her work on former President Barack Obama’s auto task force, efforts to boost advanced manufacturing and getting more women and girls in science, technology and engineering career fields and to address the nation’s semiconductor shortage and gun violence. Stevens’ broadcast TV ads and mailers make no mention of her opponent.
Off the debate stage, the most negative swipe Stevens has taken is criticizing Levin for “abandoning” some of his current constituents by not running in the neighboring 10th District that largely covers parts of Macomb County. Levin countered that he lives in the new 11th in Bloomfield Township and has deep ties there.
Analysts noted that Stevens of Waterford Township doesn’t need to go negative with others already doing so.
“She’s got an advantage in that she’s got outside groups doing it for her,” said Dave Dulio, a political scientist at Oakland University.
Both Stevens and Levin are seeking a third term in the new 11th District created during last year’s redistricting process. It covers Oakland County communities such as Royal Oak, Birmingham, Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield Township and Pontiac.
“So far, the member-on-member primaries (in Georgia and Illinois) all have been blowouts. I don’t think that will be the case here,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with the newsletter Inside Elections. “My educated estimate is that this will be a close race to the end.”
Levin’s approach
Levin is likely going more aggressive at this stage because he is at a disadvantage, certainly in terms of money, said Adrian Hemond, CEO of the Lansing-based consulting firm Grassroots Midwest. Stevens ended the first quarter with $2.78 million on hand compared with Levin’s $1.47 million.
“You only go negative if you feel like you have to,” Hemond said.
With a flood of outside spending expected in the primary, the Levin campaign said it recognized early on it would have to work to counter that messaging and draw contrasts between the two candidates.
A vocal critic of Israeli policy, Levin has faced attacks from endorsers of Stevens, such as the pro-Israel group American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and Abe Foxman, former national director of the Anti-Defamation League.
A super PAC tied to AIPAC is spending over $800,000 on broadcast ads targeting the district, and a group connected to Emily’s List has an $860,000 TV buy targeting the 11th, according to Emily’s List, which supports pro-choice female candidates and is backing Stevens.
“I think the flood of outside money shows that her supporters are nervous that our message is a winning one and that our high-profile endorsements are giving us a boost,” Levin spokeswoman Jenny Byer said. “I assume they have polling like we do showing a very close race that will be decided in the following weeks.”
Rubashkin said he finds it remarkable that AIPAC is spending in support of Stevens, the non-Jewish candidate, and against Levin, scion of one of the most prominent Democratic Jewish families in Michigan over the past half-century.
“It is an interesting kind of case study in AIPAC’s relatively recent push into electoral politics in such an up front way,” he said.
Byer accused the Stevens campaign of going negative first by repeatedly criticizing Levin in the press earlier this year for his decision to run in “his family’s home district.”
The campaign has played up Levin’s background as an environmental activist and labor organizer, with T-shirts calling him the “Shop Steward of Congress.” National progressive groups and figures including Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and the Sunrise Movement have jumped in to endorse Levin.
More:Stevens, Levin launch first ads of hotly contested congressional primary
Voters “need to understand who is fighting to protect voting rights and abortion rights, to stop climate change, to raise wages and lower costs for working families,” Byer said.
“The alternative is a moderate Democrat who helped us with the majority in a front-line district, but whose record and positions don’t fit the values of the new district.”
Stevens’ ‘battleground’ strategy
Stevens’ campaign has rejected framing the race as progressive vs. moderate, noting that both lawmakers have nearly identical voting records. The major difference between the candidates in Congress is their focus, with Stevens’ largely on manufacturing and the auto industry, Stevens spokeswoman Larkin Parker said.
“This race isn’t about moderate versus progressive. The reason why we’ve not changed any of our positioning from running in a Republican seat to a D+11 is because these are local issues that she’s focused on,” said Parker, referring to the political advantage Democrats have to hold the seat in November.
“It’s not like in the last four years Oakland County went from being the heartland of our automotive industry to something totally different. Why would she change that — which is what’s always worked for her and is what this district is always going to be,” she added.
Parker said going negative against Levin wouldn’t be effective in the race and runs counter to Stevens’ “positive” brand.
“For this race, I have felt for a long time that Haley going negative is really disingenuous. It just doesn’t really work for her,” Parker said.
“People find her to be really genuine. One thing we get a lot is, ‘She seems like one of us. She could be my neighbor.’ That brand has always worked for her, and so certainly in this race, we’re not going to try to recreate the wheel.”
Stevens’ endorsements include the Detroit Regional Chamber and retiring Democratic U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence of Southfield, who represents about a third of the new 11th District. Lawrence is featured on a Stevens mailer that also touts a bill she wrote to boost funding for minority-owned businesses and her vote to end surprise medical billings.
In fundraising appeals, Stevens has oddly dubbed the district a “battleground” and urges donors to help her keep the 11th “blue,” even though it’s considered a safe Democratic seat. Observers said this is likely a strategy to lure more donations from a national fundraising network built up when Stevens was running in a GOP-leaning district.
“She is certainly not the only person who is exaggerating the competitiveness of a general election in order to raise funds,” Rubashkin said. “But this district would have voted for Biden by 20 points.”
Parker pushed back against a Levin mailer suggesting that Stevens doesn’t really back $15-an-hour minimum wage. The mail piece features images of peanuts and says Stevens was the only Democrat on the House Education and Labor Committee to vote with Republicans to “gut” the Raise the Wage Act.
The reference is in part to a 2019 vote by Stevens for an amendment in committee that would have exempted workers at small businesses from the wage increases. Parker noted Stevens voted for a $15 minimum wage and twice co-sponsored the Raise the Wage Act.
Abortion issue could be key
Abortion could play an outsized role in the primary contest following the Supreme Court’s decision last month to overturn Roe v. Wade. While both candidates support abortion rights, the ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization could benefit Stevens as a female candidate, whom pro-choice female voters might find more credible on the issue just by the nature of her being a woman, Hemond said.
“If that’s the dynamic that plays out here, it’s not great for him. But it’s not guaranteed that that will be the dynamic that plays out here, right?” Hemond said.
“Certainly, there is some evidence just from the relatively small amount of public opinion polling that’s been done with Democratic primary voters since the Dobbs decision that this (issue) matters a lot.”
Stevens’ latest TV spot features a direct-to-camera promise to protect Planned Parenthood and fight for abortion rights…
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