William Lloyd | Can Democrats win without Trump? | News

The Republicans may not be able to win with Donald Trump, but the Democrats may not be able to win without him.

Since his shocking upset victory in 2016, deep-seated opposition to Trump has motivated Democrats and swing voters.

In 2018, Trump’s confrontational style cost Republicans control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

In 2020, Trump’s mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic enabled the Democrats to recapture the White House and the U.S. Senate and to hold the House.

In 2022, the predicted red wave became a trickle largely because Trump endorsed flawed candidates who could win a GOP primary, but could not win a general election.

Despite these past successes, there is mounting evidence that the Democrats would be in trouble against a Republican presidential candidate other than Trump and against GOP candidates in down- ballot races who are not Trump allies.

First, although President Joe Biden might offer Democrats their best chance to defeat Trump in 2024, Biden would face a stiff challenge against a more “normal” Republican.

Furthermore, a Democratic alternative to Biden could well be a progressive who would struggle to win support from swing voters in the general election.

Second, the Democrats’ Senate majority will be in serious jeopardy in 2024, because three of their incumbents will be seeking reelection in states Trump carried handily two times.

Third, even though the Democrats won the presidency and both houses of Congress in 2020, their party actually lost seats in the House. In contrast, although GOP candidates fell short of expectations in 2022, Republicans still won a majority of House seats and received about three million more votes than their Democratic opponents.

Fourth, although Democrats have become dependent on younger voters, their party’s support among voters under 30 has declined significantly since the 2018 election.

Democrats must prepare to fight elections in 2024 and beyond, both with Trump as a target and with him as history.

That will require demonstrating the party’s ability to handle the economy, crime and immigration.

On inflation, victory is likely to depend primarily on the Federal Reserve Board’s strategy of slowing down the economy by making it more expensive for both consumers and businesses to borrow. In theory, if there is less borrowing, there will be less spending and if there is less spending, prices will go down.

Congressional Republicans have promised to supplement the Fed’s strategy with dramatic cuts in government spending. However, with the White House and the Senate in Democratic hands, those cuts are likely to be modest, especially in view of the need for a defense budget that is adequate to stop a Russian takeover of Ukraine and deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Rather than simply opposing Congressional Republicans, Democrats should take the initiative on trimming the deficit. For example, they should force Republicans to vote on ending the Trump tax cuts for the wealthy and using the savings either to reduce the deficit or to help finance future Social Security and Medicare benefits.

On immigration, Democrats have been fighting uphill because they have failed to coalesce around a viable alternative to what many of them consider to be cruel policies implemented by Trump.

Fortunately, Biden is finally attempting to mitigate the crisis by making it easier to turn away illegal immigrants from Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Haiti. Realistically, however, neither Biden’s recent actions nor comprehensive immigration reform will solve the problem as long as a significant number of Latin American countries suffer from widespread violence and poverty.

Although a majority of immigrants at the southern border are unlikely to qualify for asylum, too many will escape prompt deportation because of a shortage of immigration judges. Therefore, Democrats should force Republicans in Congress to vote on hiring substantially more immigration judges and border patrol agents and on mitigating the financial burden on states and municipalities while immigrants are awaiting asylum hearings.

On crime, Democrats have been wrong-footed ever since some activists began calling for “defunding” the police.

Understandably, Democrats are worried about the kind of police misconduct that led to incidents such as the killing of George Floyd.

However, that should not deter them from forcing Congressional Republicans to vote on funding to hire more local police officers. Democrats should also force Congressional Republicans to vote on linking receipt of federal aid to more aggressive prosecution and imprisonment of those who commit crimes with guns.

Democrats will struggle to win future elections unless, and until, they stop soft-pedaling legitimate issues that matter to the Fox News audience.