Pandemic tempers optimism about Dayton region economic prospects in 2022
What do you foresee for the Dayton Region’s economic recovery in 2022?
“Dayton’s recovery has lagged the national recovery so far, in part reflecting the impact of the auto supply chain problems on local manufacturers, as well as demographic trends,” Adams said.
The Dayton metropolitan area had the sixth lowest rate of job growth among the state’s 12 metropolitan areas, with the number of jobs increasing by 1.4% year-over-year to 381,900 in November, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Cincinnati metro area, which includes Butler County, had the most robust growth at 3.6%, and the Springfield area ranked third at 2.3%
Total non-farm employees – Ohio metropolitan areas
Credit: Alexis Larsen
Total non-farm employees – Ohio metropolitan areas
Credit: Alexis Larsen
Credit: Alexis Larsen
Stock called the Dayton region’s job growth “anemic” and said there are still 13,400 fewer jobs than in November 2019 before the pandemic.
Four industry sectors have struggled the most in the last two years in the Dayton region: leisure and hospitality, down 4,800 jobs compared to November 2019, health care and social assistance, with 3,300 fewer jobs, as well as state government education services such as colleges and training centers and local governments, Stock said.
“Recovery in Dayton in 2022 will continue to be more anemic than otherwise because the underlying conditions causing weakness in those sectors have not been resolved,” Stock said.
On the positive side, Stock said, “strength in construction and continued strength in trade and transportation will offset some of the fallout from that continued weakness.”
“Manufacturing job growth will be mixed with strength in some sectors offset by factory closings in other areas,” Stock said. “Long term, Dayton will experience growth in professional and business services as it becomes more integrated in the greater Cincinnati area. Wright-Patterson (Air Force Base) will continue to be a source of strength in that area.”
Richard Stock, director of the University of Dayton Business Research Group: “We are no longer a union town and our wage rates are substantially lower than the Ohio average in 2017. And that is profoundly different than just 10 years ago.”
Richard Stock, director of the University of Dayton Business Research Group: “We are no longer a union town and our wage rates are substantially lower than the Ohio average in 2017. And that is profoundly different than just 10 years ago.”
While manufacturing has not fully recovered from the pandemic, Kershner said that sector will improve as shipping costs continue declining and supply chain bottlenecks clear up.
“The economy will continue its steady growth in 2022, yet likely at a slower pace than in 2021,” Kershner said. “Last year, we saw the economic recovery outpace expectations, due in part to consumer spending fueled by stimulus dollars.”
“Wages have increased across the region, which will hopefully translate to increased or sustained consumer spending,” he said.
After a very difficult 2020 the Dayton region saw economic development projects move forward in downtown Dayton, near the Dayton International Airport, and elsewhere in 2021, creating jobs and hope. An infusion of federal money from the infrastructure bill passed last year is also expected to boost jobs and development.
The unemployment rate was 3.5% in the Dayton metro area, tying with four other metro areas —including Springfield — for second lowest rate in November among the state’s metro areas. Cincinnati and Columbus had the lowest rate at 3%, according the the BLS.
Unemployment – Ohio metropolitan areas
Credit: Alexis Larsen
Unemployment – Ohio metropolitan areas
Credit: Alexis Larsen
Credit: Alexis Larsen
Sullivan said Wright-Patt is driving growth among Dayton region defense contractors and the logistics and distribution industries continue to boom. Near the airport Amazon is building two new facilities, and a distribution center for Crocs shoes is nearly complete.
“Right now, we are very optimistic for 2022. We had a record-setting 2021 for JobsOhio projects in terms of committed jobs, and our pipeline for 2022 is very strong,” Sullivan said. “We’ve seen a variety of projects in diverse industries, increasing our region’s resiliency and creating new career opportunities for our communities.”
The walls are up at Amazon’s last mile delivery station on Lightner Rd. in Dayton near the Dayton International Airport. The building will be 140,000 square feet in size. JIM NOELKER/STAFF
Credit: JIM NOELKER
The walls are up at Amazon’s last mile delivery station on Lightner Rd. in Dayton near the Dayton International Airport. The building will be 140,000 square feet in size. JIM NOELKER/STAFF
Credit: JIM NOELKER
Credit: JIM NOELKER
Gudorf said downtown construction projects are booming, with wait lists to get into housing developments, and the newly renovated Dayton Arcade opened, with apartments and private offices already full.
“I am extremely optimistic about the economic progress and economic recovery for our region,” Gudorf said. “Fourth quarter last year we had several round table discussions with several of our (office) businesses. For many, 2021 was a banner year for them. They expect the same kind of level going in to 2022.”
Holly Days returned to the newly restored Rotunda of the Dayton Arcade from Tuesday, Dec. 7 through Thursday, Dec. 9, 2021. The free, family friendly event featured artisan vendors, live performances, a community Lego build hosted by Brixilated, magical snowfall and more. This amazing rebirth of Holly Days was originally held in 1992 & 1993 when The Arcade was known as Arcade Square. Did we spot you there on Thursday night? TOM GILLIAM / CONTRIBUTING PHOTOGRAPHER
Credit: Tom Gilliam
Holly Days returned to the newly restored Rotunda of the Dayton Arcade from Tuesday, Dec. 7 through Thursday, Dec. 9, 2021. The free, family friendly event featured artisan vendors, live performances, a community Lego build hosted by Brixilated, magical snowfall and more. This amazing rebirth of Holly Days was originally held in 1992 & 1993 when The Arcade was known as Arcade Square. Did we spot you there on Thursday night? TOM GILLIAM / CONTRIBUTING PHOTOGRAPHER
Credit: Tom Gilliam
Credit: Tom Gilliam
Also important to the recovery are southwest Ohio’s 23 colleges and universities, which educate 200,000 students annually and have a total economic impact of $7.3 billon, Barlow said.
“National research indicates that education is critical in any region for economic development and recovery,” she said. “Education raises people’s productivity and creativity and promotes entrepreneurship and technological advances. In addition, it plays a very crucial role in securing economic and social progress and improving income distribution.”
What are the primary hurdles the Dayton Region faces in 2022?
Educators at all levels, along with governments, businesses, nonprofit organizations and local residents are key to resolving what many see as the region’s greatest economic issue: workforce.
“The primary hurdle the Dayton Region faces in 2022 is continuing to build, attract and retain a trained and ready workforce,” Barlow said, “It has never been more important for every citizen of our region to earn a post-secondary credential in order to best contribute to our community’s needs, while earning a livable wage.”
Dr. Cassie Barlow. CONTRIBUTED
Dr. Cassie Barlow. CONTRIBUTED
The skills gap existed before the pandemic but the pandemic put that problem into overdrive as 20.5 million people were thrown out of work in April 2020 in the U.S. and the unemployment rate hit 14.7%. The pandemic recession decimated swaths of the economy.
Rebuilding the workforce has proven problematic as fear of COVID-19 continues, parents struggle to find affordable, quality child care, schools close and reopen, and people reevaluate their lives and occupations in what has become known as the Great Resignation.
In November a record 4.5 million people voluntarily quit their jobs nationally, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“Labor scarcity will likely intensify in 2022 as the recovery continues to push the unemployment rate lower,” Adams said. “Workers in Dayton will have more employment opportunities than in the past as national employers open up more positions for remote work.”
Last year a report commissioned by the First Suburbs Consortium of Dayton called for increasing regional collaboration on workforce issues. Local colleges and universities already work closely with businesses to target training toward workforce needs.
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