Trump’s ultimate problem – American Thinker

I continue to marvel at how different American politics has become in the Age of Trump.  The old precedents just don’t apply.  A lot of this has to do with how the American left has obliterated the rule of law and all bounds of respectable thinking.  Pres. Trump is a truly unique individual with a knack for catching a lucky break whenever he needs it.  But his political career is ultimately just a backlash against the craziness of our current politics.

Remember just this winter?  After the disastrous 2022 elections for Trump candidates, The Donald’s hopes for the presidency were fading away faster than Mike Lindell’s bank account.  But then he was indicted.  Not once, but four times, for nearly every offense under the sun.

The injustice of it all caused Republicans to rally to his side and buoy his poll numbers.  He also reaped millions in donations, which were then used to attack Ron DeSantis or pay his hefty legal bills.  His campaign is effectively broke, but it doesn’t matter.  The GOP race is so hopelessly scrambled that his opponents are wondering if it’s over even before it begins.

The various trials of Donald Trump threaten to be virtually the only story for the next year.  So far, we are waiting on court dates for the last two sets of indictments.  Alvin Bragg has already hinted he would be happy to see the federal courts delay his March trial, while they get him first.  The Miami federal case is scheduled for May, and the ultra-partisan Judge Tanya Chutkan in D.C. is pushing for an early 2024 trial in her court.  I expect her to issue an order delaying New York’s case.  The judge in the Fulton County case is actually a Republican member of the Federalist Society.  He is probably fair, just as Chutkan is unfair.  With 19 defendants, the smart move on his part is to delay until 2025 and decide the motions to dismiss this year.

That still means Trump is in jeopardy in two federal trials next year.  The case in D.C. is a disgrace, but the judge and jury will be out to get him.  Even though he is not technically charged with insurrection, if he is convicted on any of the D.C. offenses, the NeverTrump legal community will say he was.  They are already howling for Sec. 3 of the 14th Amendment.  They want to call Trump a rebel or insurrectionist and have the various secretaries of state deny him access to the ballots on their own authority.

This would be a ghastly assault on our democracy.  Worse than what they claimed to be upset about when Trump asked Mike Pence to rule out electoral votes unilaterally on January 6.  But hypocrisy is the Beltway’s only guiding principle.

Even setting that aside, if Trump is convicted in either D.C. or Miami, as I would think he will likely be, then judges Cannon and Chutkan can set conditions on his post-conviction release on appeal.  Such releases are commonly granted in criminal cases, and I expect they would be in this case, but the judge may set conditions; once convicted, a person loses most of his civil rights.

What if Judge Chutkan requires Trump not to campaign or make public speeches while he is out on appeal in 2024?  Or what if she just requires him to formally withdraw from the race, or else be sent to the federal slammer?  I think this may be the ultimate danger to Pres. Trump: accept impossible release conditions, or spend the fall campaign literally locked away.

Sure, Eugene Debs ran for president from prison, in 1920.  But it’s not as if he won many votes.  (Kindhearted Warren G. Harding had to commute his sentence the next year.)

This is going to be one crazy election year, even before we get to the Republican Milwaukee convention next July.  If you are Ron DeSantis or another GOP contender, you need to be ready for anything to happen, as it probably will.  Because for now, this is Trump’s world; you’re just along for the ride like the rest of us.  

Frank Friday is an attorney in Louisville, Ky.

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