Loss of Kherson city shatters political goals of Putin’s war in Ukraine
Although Russian forces still control the broader Kherson region, which forms part of Putin’s coveted “land bridge” from mainland Russia to illegally annexed Crimea, forfeiting the capital city is a stunning blow after repeated, blustery declarations by pro-Kremlin figures that Russia would stay in Kherson “forever.”
Moscow’s hard-line pro-war faction, including nationalist military bloggers, called the surrender of the city a “betrayal” and a “black day.” Kherson, along with the other illegally annexed regions, was written into the Russian constitution as part of Russia, after the parliament affirmed Putin’s annexation plans.
Kherson’s flag, along with those of the three other regions, was raised recently during a ceremony in the State Duma.
While other leaders might suffer serious repercussions, the Kremlin for weeks carefully prepared the Russian population for the shock, distancing Putin from responsibility and trying to insulate him from political fallout. Still, there were signs that Putin would not entirely escape responsibility and that the Kherson defeat could fan opposition to the war, which has risen slowly amid repeated battlefield setbacks.
“I think this will seriously complicate how the situation is viewed inside the country,” said one influential Moscow businessman, declining to be named because of possible consequences in a paranoid, increasingly totalitarian state. “It is a serious loss.”
“For Russia, these losses have a sacred character,” the businessman added. “It is a big blow to the image of Putin.”
The retreat from Kherson city was the latest in a string of military collapses for Putin, including Russia’s failed attempt to seize Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, early in the war, and Ukraine’s lightning rout of Russian forces from the northeast Kharkiv region in September.
The territorial losses in Kharkiv led Putin to declare a messy conscription drive that prompted hundreds of thousands of men to flee Russia and sent tens of thousands of poorly trained troops to fight in Ukraine.
Many ordinary Russians still see Putin as a clever, czar-like figure who loves his motherland but is perennially let down by venal, incompetent officials, according to analysts, who said the Kremlin’s propaganda efforts had seemingly worked to minimize the public’s concerns about the Kherson surrender.
But the many military failures in an unnecessary war are obvious to Moscow’s elite billionaires and state officials. Equally clear are the political difficulties created by Putin’s annexations, a flagrant violation of international law now exposed as a delusion.
Amid military retreats, bungled mobilization, deepening economic difficulties and mounting casualties, Moscow is increasingly signaling a readiness for talks with Ukraine. But negotiations are unlikely while Putin clings to his position that Kyiv must accept his illegal seizures of territory.
Putin stayed away on Wednesday as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the top Russian army commander in Ukraine, Col. Gen. Sergei Surovikin, performed an awkward, robotic dialogue on Russia 24 state television, formalizing the decision to abandon Kherson “to save lives.”
As Shoigu approved the surrender, Putin visited the federal center for brain and neuro technologies to mark the 75th anniversary of the Federal Medical-Biological Agency. It was unclear whether the Russian president was totally out of touch or intentionally putting himself out of reach of the military decision.
Former Kremlin adviser Sergei Markov, speaking in an interview, described the surrender of Kherson as “the largest geopolitical defeat of Russia since the collapse of the U.S.S.R.,” noting Putin’s personal guarantee that the territory would always be part of Russia.
“This is, of course, a huge blow to the mood of the population,” said Markov “It is a huge blow to the army — to their fighting spirit. It is a blow to respect for President Putin and a blow for optimism.”
Putin, however, remains protected by his coterie of security and military leaders and has shown no outward sign of changing course.
Political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov, of the Carnegie Endowment for…
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