Abortion ruling, electability of candidates threaten Republican wave
The next big party realignment may not be here. But the rumblings of change are getting louder. Democrats may have figured out that succeeding at getting something done is better than failing at getting too much done.
Republicans may still enjoy the wave election that so many foresaw just months ago. But that’s looking a lot less likely, despite inflation, surges in violent crime, a porous border and the pull of other cultural issues. Glenn Youngkin showed one path with his upset win in Virginia. He was a credible candidate with a record of personal accomplishment and the ability to strategically exploit these issues.
However, the path more traveled for many Republicans follows another playbook that’s coming close to prying defeat from the jaws of victory. The party’s obsession with a Supreme Court that would actually overturn Roe v. Wade has finally been realized. It’s become the political obsession that caught the political consequences car.
Kansas voters send a clear message
That car looks like a Hummer. The overwhelming Kansas vote against removing abortion protections from its constitution sent a clear message. Even folks uneasy with unfettered abortion aren’t in favor of letting state legislatures pass extreme laws without exceptions for rape and incest. This feeling was a giant turnout machine for Democrats, and many Independents.
There are also the basics, like recruiting and supporting electable candidates. That’sDigital where Democrats are doing a much better job. In Pennsylvania, Georgia and elsewhere, strong Republican candidates would be likely winners who would shift the Senate to GOP control. But flawed celebrity nominees make these states tossups at best.
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Sometimes long-sought-after change has unforeseen and unintended consequences. The Tennessee General Assembly recently provided the opportunity for parties to run candidates in local school board races, effectively turning these contests from nonpartisan to partisan. Underlying it was the ever-present and ever-expanding school culture/policy world where Republicans seemed to have the advantage.
Insulting teachers is dumb
But then came the remarks of Hillsdale College President Larry Arrn, insulting teachers and the institutions that train them. The reaction was immediate and resonated through both political parties. Tennesseans may differ on vouchers and charters, but they tend to love their teachers. This situation was enough to turn apparent newfound electoral advantage to possible disadvantage.
This all plays out locally. Not so long ago, the Democratic Party in Knox County was on the ropes. It often did not run candidates in many countywide races, and when it did they were underfunded. Only a couple of core-city commission and school districts were in play.
Knox County Democrats have made gains
This cycle was different. True, no Democrat won a countywide race. But margins shrunk to a near-competitive 55-45 where they were well over 60-40 four years ago and even greater margins with fewer serious candidates eight years back. This year’s partisan school board races were more competitive, including the upset of a well-qualified, well-funded Republican.
One election cycle does not qualify as a trend. Nobody’s claiming Knox County has turned blue. But there are at least tinges of purple. The landscape’s changing. And it’s not just Republican stumbling.
It’s hard to build a competitive local party from the ashes. National trends motivate potential candidates. They motivate donors. But there’s still no substitute for the blocking and tackling of politics at ground level.
It takes work to recruit electable candidates
Local leadership is critical. Knox County Democratic Chair Matt Shears has quietly, patiently and effectively and labored to recruit credible, electable candidates. He has assisted them with fundraising, strategy and messaging. With only a few candidate- based exceptions, the dominant theme has been more traditionally liberal than the more progressive “woke” that doesn’t play so well locally. That’s how parties rise from the local canvas.
American democracy requires a dynamic two-party system. Both national parties need to make sure adults are in charge, nationally and locally, act strategically, eschew extreme positions, nominate electable candidates and work to convince the undecided. Effective governing will follow.
William Lyons is Director of Policy Partnerships for the Howard Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy and Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Tennessee. He also served as Chief Policy Officer for Knoxville Mayors Bill Haslam, Daniel Brown and Madeline Rogero.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Howard Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy or the University of Tennessee.
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