2022 Stanley Cup Final – Can the Avs clinch on home ice? Previewing what could

The 2022 Stanley Cup Final could be decided Friday night in Denver, with the Colorado Avalanche holding a 3-1 lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Who needs to step up for the Lightning to force the series back to Tampa? Who is the Conn Smythe favorite? Will the Avs lift the Cup at home? We asked our hockey experts those questions and more ahead of the possible clinching game.

Who will we be talking about if the Avs win Game 5?

Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Cale Makar. If Colorado wins the Stanley Cup on home ice it will be in large part due to Makar’s fantastic postseason performance. From start to finish, he has been consistently incredible. Game 1 of the Cup Final might not have been Makar’s best, but he adjusted to the Lightning’s smothering style and responded accordingly. He is the third-leading scorer in the entire postseason field (seven goals and 27 points in 18 games) and is a force in every situation (see: scoring short-handed and on the power play in Game 2).

The way he can keep plays alive with his superior skating and excellent awareness is just next level. We knew all this about Makar going into the playoffs, but the reigning Norris Trophy winner has been even better than advertised and will dominate the conversation if this ends in Colorado’s favor.

Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: Darcy Kuemper. Look, I’m a Kuemper truther. When I picked the Avalanche to win this series, I did so believing that goalie Pavel Francouz would eventually take the crease from him against the Lightning. For a minute, it looked that way: Kuemper was pulled in the Lightning’s Game 3 rout and had a negative goals saved above expected for the series. The massive advantage the Lightning had in goal with Andrei Vasilevskiy looked like it could tip the Stanley Cup Final. That is, until Kuemper made 37 saves in Game 4 and had a higher goals saved above expected (1.14) than Vasilevskiy (1.08). Now the Avalanche are back home, where their speed and forechecking helped Kuemper pitch a shutout in Game 2. It could be a very good night for the goalie and his teammates.

Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: Nazem Kadri. Playing just one game since June 4, the Colorado center might have the freshest legs out there, along with an appetite to contribute after being starved of the chance for most of the month. So I particularly like his chances of being the ultimate difference-maker, again, after scoring the OT winner in Game 4 (not that it affected how the scoring play unfolded, but hopefully with the proper number of Avalanche skaters on the ice this time). Plus, there’s Kadri’s return following surgery on his mashed thumb that initially looked like it would keep him out for the rest of the playoffs. Even considering the magic of modern medicine, he must be in immense pain. Sports fans of all stripes adore such narratives, and for good reason.

Arda Ocal, NHL host: I think it will be Kadri, too, but since Victoria picked him, I’ll take Valeri Nichushkin. He has had an incredible postseason, and I could absolutely see him having a signature moment in Game 5. Overall I do think Cale Makar gets the Conn Smythe, but there are many excellent pieces — like Nichushkin — who have brought this team one game from its first title since 2001.

If the Lightning are going to get back into this series, who is the one player who needs to step up on Friday?

Shilton: Steven Stamkos. And I don’t just mean on the ice, although Stamkos could add some more there, too. Stamkos has only two points in the Cup Final, both in the Lightning’s 6-2 drubbing of the Avs in Game 3. He’s due for a more momentum-shifting moment.

Beyond that though, Tampa Bay will need Stamkos’ leadership to turn the page quickly on Game 4. The Lightning clearly — and perhaps understandably — had strong feelings about Nazem Kadri’s overtime winner. There is simply no time to waste moving on from those emotions if Tampa Bay intends to extend the series to Game 6. Stamkos is a respected voice. He has been through a lot himself, personally and professionally. If anyone can share wisdom on perseverance, it’s him. Not to say the Lightning at large aren’t mentally tough enough to get over the too-many-men controversy. This just feels like a juncture where, when it would be easy to hang their heads, the Lightning will look to their captain for perspective.

Wyshynski: Andrei Vasilevskiy. He has earned his status as one of the best postseason goalies in NHL history. He played marvelously in Games 3 and 4 in Tampa, after that seven goals-against…