NY Democrats’ gerrymandering could backfire in moderate area of Queens

New York Democrats could see their politically and racially motivated redistricting plan partially backfire in a moderate section of Queens — where Republican politicos see an opening in a redrawn state Senate district.

Senate District 16’s new borders include middle-class, conservative neighborhoods like College Point and Whitestone — and now does not include tony Jamaica Estates.

Longtime state Sen. Toby Ann Stavisky, 83, represents the area today, but challenger Stefano Forte, 24, is looking for an upset.

“This is a seat that actually has the potential to have a Republican take office,” Forte said.

The lifelong Queens native plans to run a tough-on-crime campaign against Stavisky, a criminal-justice reformer. Other priorities include protecting single-family zoning, a small-business tax holiday, and a $10,000 subsidized “marriage loan” for New Yorkers who tie the knot and stay in-state.

“It is an opportunity district for the right candidate,” according to one former Republican lawmaker who asked not to be named. “The district could be competitive especially on crime and education issues.”

Just 33.2 percent of voters within the old boundaries voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020, but 41.3 percent of voters within the new ones did, according to a City University of New York redistricting mapping tool.

Republican Curtis Sliwa narrowly won the redrawn district in the 2021 mayoral election, according to statistics provided by the CUNY Graduate Center’s Center for Urban Research, based city Board of Elections data.

Sliwa won the district 49.2 percent to 47.2 percent, according to the statistics.

“The upshot is that the 2021 mayoral results calculated according to the new State Senate district 16 would give Curtis Sliwa a slight edge and a plurality of votes, all else being equal,” CUNY’s Steven Romalewski said.

Sliwa said he “absolutely” believes Forte has a shot under the new lines.

“Stefano, he’s got the kind of energy that new, young Republicans have to have. He’s not your conventional Republican,” Sliwa, who has endorsed Forte, said. “He identified himself … as a new-style Sliwa populist Republican.”

The district also heavily overlaps with City Council District 19, which recently elected Trump-friendly Republican Vickie Paladino in an upset.

“You can’t draw everything for everybody,” Jeffrey M. Wice, senior fellow at New York Law School’s New York Census and Redistricting Institute, said. “The population requirements, the need to draw the proper numbers of minority districts — this all involves a balancing act of competing criteria.”

Forte faces a gigantic cash deficit in his race against the longtime incumbent: he reported about $10,000 on hand as of January, compared to Stavisky’s roughly $229,000.

Stavisky was first elected to the State Senate in 1999, following the death of her husband, State Sen. Leonard Stavisky, who himself had held office since 1983.

Tess McRae, a rep for Stavisky, said in a statement: “Senator Stavisky remains the best person to represent the people of Queens. There is no doubt she will bring the same level of passion and diligence to the residents within the new district lines — many of whom she has represented in the past.

“She looks forward to securing another term so that she may continue to make New York a more equitable place for all.”