Friendly Fire Thursday: The war in Ukraine, and the sides we choose

Can Americans still have a sensible and friendly political discussion across the partisan divide? The answer is yes, and we intend to prove it. Julie Roginsky, a Democrat, and Mike DuHaime, a Republican, are consultants who have worked on opposite teams for their entire careers yet have remained friends throughout. Here, they discuss the week’s events with Editorial Page Editor Tom Moran.

Q. Russian tanks are pouring into Ukraine this morning, as NATO rushes reinforcements to its eastern border. Is President Biden handling this crisis well so far? What did you think of his speech?

Mike: Well, so far, not so good. We have the type of war in Europe breaking out that we thought was consigned to history. I don’t know if anyone could have prevented it, but the fact is, he didn’t. The West will now impose crippling sanctions on Russia. We will see if that works.

Julie: Biden is handling this crisis better than any of his predecessors. Bush did nothing when Russian forces and their allies on the ground poured into Georgia and committed massive human rights atrocities. Obama’s reaction was equally ridiculous, rewarding that Russian aggression by attempting a “reset” with Putin, to which Putin responded by annexing Crimea and launching a proxy war in eastern Ukraine. And, of course, the less said of Trump’s kowtowing to Putin by attempting to weaken NATO and the EU, the better.

Julie: Biden deserves credit for putting his foot down, working with often reluctant European allies to impose real sanctions and hold Putin and his cronies personally accountable. I think those sanctions have not yet gone far enough but hopefully the screws will tighten on Putin and his oligarchs now that Russian forces have begun to shell Ukrainian cities.

Q. Is the American public ready to make sacrifices for this cause, like paying higher prices for gasoline and food? How might this affect the midterm elections?

Mike: Americans will make sacrifices, but not with the lives of our troops at this point. Americans would, however, be willing to make some economic sacrifices. The political problem for Biden is this comes on top of the highest inflation in 40 years, unrelated to Ukraine. War in Europe like we haven’t seen in 75 years exacerbating economic woes in the US will hurt Democrats in the midterms.

Julie: Mike is right that higher energy prices will likely not help Democrats in the midterms but let me spare a word for former President Trump and his toadies, who are openly rooting for Putin because he is standing up to a Democratic president: I realize there is no bottom for you, but it is a mentality like yours that led to the greatest genocide in history not too long ago.

Julie: I live in freedom today because better Americans than you stood up to Putin’s predecessors and demanded that human rights and a democratic international order take precedence over craven political calculus. How far we have fallen when a once-great political party would rather root for a murderous kleptocrat than for its own nation and its democratic ideals.

Q. While most Republicans support a tough response, not all do. Tucker Carlson is defending Putin at every turn, while former President Trump called Putin a “genius” and described the Russian military as a “peace force.” Where do you expect Republicans to land on this in coming months?

Mike: I hope Republicans return to John McCain’s view of Putin and Russia, which is one of distrust and disdain. Reagan would roll in his grave if he heard Trump and his puppets acting as apologists for a Russian land invasion of a neighboring democracy.

Julie: I hope Mike is right, but he is, sadly, in the minority among Republicans. In fact, Republicans view Putin more favorably that they view President Biden. For electoral gain, they would rather exploit the real pain Americans will be feeling at the pump as a result of this crisis than unite around democratic ideals and stand up to a former KGB thug who longs for the days of the Soviet Union. As I said earlier, there is no bottom.

Q. In New Jersey, Democrats agreed to a new legislative map that sets up two big fights between incumbent Democratic senators, with Dick Codey and Nia Gill now in the same district, along with Brian Stack and Nick Sacco. Why would they do that?

Mike: I should yield my time to Julie. I don’t pretend to understand Hudson County Democrats, despite my affection for the county in general. Same for Essex. There are two possibilities here, both of which could be partially true. The first is, like Michael Corleone said, it was time to settle all family business. Powerful Democrats can rid themselves of other powerful Democrats. This map hurts Sweeney’s chances of a return and guarantees two long-term Essex and Hudson senators will lose in June.

Mike: The second reality is Democrats are coming off a gerrymandered map, and even with the population and demographic shifts favoring Democrats, the map called for some sacrifice. For Republicans, this was a good outcome led by Al Barlas. Republicans now have an opportunity to build on their gains of 2021 and have a realistic shot at a 20-20 or even gaining majorities in a good year.

Julie: This map helped a few powerful Democrats at the expense of the Democratic Party. Let’s remember that within a year of Governor Murphy taking office, Democrats had 26 Senate seats and 54 Assembly seats. After four years of Murphy, Democrats have 24 seats and 46 Assembly seats. Thanks to this map, Democrats could potentially lose three more Senate seats next year, leaving them with a bare majority and making every senator Joe Manchin. This is what four years of infighting has produced. I implore my party to correct course, start talking to voters about the issues they care about and keep their eye on the prize.

Q. The Casino Association released a study predicting that an indoor smoking ban would kill 2,500 jobs and cut revenue by 11 percent. Isn’t this argument over? Do you expect New Jersey to finally end this exemption and ban smoking at the slots?

Mike: I’ve worked with the Casino Association, and they’ve done a good job finding the balance of protecting the health and safety of employees and patrons with the economic realities of protecting jobs in South Jersey. Pennsylvania does not have a ban and will take thousands of customers from NJ, which will cost jobs and eliminate tax revenue for the state.

Julie: I appreciate where the Casino Association is coming from, but I will also speak from personal experience. I was never a big gambler, but I have not set foot on the floor of a casino in many years because I hate inhaling other people’s second-hand smoke and coming home smelling like cigarettes. I wonder how many people like me are actually choosing not to visit a casino because they don’t want to wash their hair and clothes the minute they leave.

Q. Finally, U.S. airlines and the flight attendants’ union say the number of disruptive passengers has doubled during the pandemic, mostly because of disputes over masks. They want these passengers to be put on the national no-fly list, an idea opposed by several Republican senators. What do you think?

Mike: If people are complaining about wearing masks and annoying their fellow passengers, I am not ready to equate them with terrorists and put them on no-fly lists. If a passenger becomes violent in any way regardless of the reason, I’m good with them being banned from flying. There’s no constitutional right to fly on a plane. You must play by the rules, or you can walk.

Julie: I agree with Mike. We’ve already established that I don’t smoke but if I suddenly felt the urge to light up a Marlboro mid-flight, I would be severely penalized. The same rules should apply to those not wearing masks.

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A note to readers: Mike and Julie are both deeply engaged in politics and commercial advocacy in New Jersey, so both have connections to many players we discuss in this column. Given that, we will not normally disclose each specific connection, trusting that readers understand they are not impartial observers. DuHaime, the founder of Mad Global Strategy, was chief political advisor to former Gov. Chris Christie, and has worked for Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and President George W. Bush. Roginsky, a principal of Optimus Communications, has served as senior advisor to campaigns of Cory Booker, Frank Lautenberg and Phil Murphy, and has worked with Rep. Phil Norcross, the brother of George Norcross. We will disclose specific…