Some Light Shines in the Biden Tunnel

Just when it appeared things couldn’t get any darker for Joe Biden and the Democrats, some light has suddenly broken through in the tunnel.

First, of course, is the impending retirement of Justice Stephen Breyer and the opportunity for the president to make a historic pick by putting an African American woman on the Supreme Court. This issue will dominate news cycles for months, and it’s a classic changing-of-the-narrative moment from bad news (COVID, inflation, Ukraine) to good (a victory in the Senate with a high court confirmation that fulfills a campaign promise).

But perhaps even more encouraging for the bruised and battered psyches of Democrats is a Politico/Morning Consult poll released this week that is both surprising and encouraging.

First, the unsurprising finding. In a theoretical 2024 matchup, Joe Biden gets trounced by a generic GOP candidate, 46 to 37. But Republicans, alas, will have to nominate an actual person. And here’s the interesting part. When the usual suspects are all lined up, Biden beats every last one of them, including Donald Trump. The breakdown:

Biden 45 – Trump 44
Biden 44 – Mike Pence 42
Biden 44 – Ron DeSantis 39
Biden 45 – Ted Cruz 39

Another interesting twist that the pollsters noted is that when Trump is removed from the equation, respondents who identify as Republican—or who lean that way—show no real consensus. DeSantis is out in front of that field, appealing to almost a quarter of those polled. But he’s nearly neck and neck—hard as it is to believe—with none other than Donald Trump Jr., who pulls in 24%.

Moreover, since this poll was taken before the Supreme Court news, it’s not a reach to suggest that Biden—at the time the survey was taken—was likely at the lowest point in his presidency. Even so, he still beats all projected Republican comers.

But wait a minute. This calculus assumes Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee. While this is the conventional wisdom, I think it’s doubtful. I believe it’s more likely that Biden will step down and clear the path for someone who would have the potential to generate more enthusiasm and be a stronger candidate. Why? Hear me out.

I understand that American history is not peppered with incumbent presidents who decided not to run for reelection. But Joe Biden, at 79, is the oldest U.S. president—ever. Though he has insisted lately that he intends to run again (which he has to do or risks instantly becoming a lame duck), during the campaign he characterized his candidacy as one of “transition.” Moreover, at the end of the day, the one person who can persuade Biden to pass the baton is Jill Biden. I’d bet even money she’ll do so. I think she acutely feels the toll the presidency takes on a spouse, especially one who will be north of 80 in 2024, and will convince her husband to enjoy some sunsets.

That may give the Democrats new headaches—and opportunities. Who would fill the Biden vacuum? Obvious choices from the administration bench include Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg. Who else do the Democrats have in the wings? Amy Klobuchar, Mitch Landrieu, Cory Booker, Gavin Newsom, Stacey Abrams, Roy Cooper, Elizabeth Warren, Phil Murphy, Gina Raimondo, and, yes, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez make the lists. Could a nonpolitician emerge—say, a business personality (Bob Iger says he won’t run) or a celebrity (Dwayne Johnson’s name has come up now and again)? These are intriguing and even refreshing scenarios.