New Polling Reveals Why Dems Are Freaking Out Over RFK Jr.’s Candidacy

• The Democratic National Committee is ramping up its efforts against independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates to combat what it views as the potential to spoil President Joe Biden’s reelection bid.
• Recent national and battleground state polling indicates that Kennedy is pulling more support from Biden than Trump, showing the former president’s leads growing when the independent is on the ticket.
• “Kennedy is a kook of the first order, and there’s a lot of kooks in the Democratic Party who aren’t happy with Biden. So you give them a third, kooky door to go through, and they just might do it,” Scott Jennings, a GOP strategist and veteran of numerous campaigns, told the DCNF.

New national and battleground state polling indicate why Democrats are concerned that independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy could be a spoiler for President Joe Biden’s reelection bid.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is ramping up efforts against Kennedy and other third-party candidates in hopes of deterring them from siphoning off votes from Biden’s base. Recent polling has found the independent pulling more support from Biden than Trump, which is contrary to survey data that followed Kennedy’s departure from the Democratic Party in early October.

Trump’s lead grows slightly from one point to 2.4 points nationally when Kennedy, “Justice for All Party” candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are on the ballot, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages. For a three-way race with Kennedy, Trump’s margin widens to 5.4 points.

Additionally, the former president’s advantages increase when Kennedy and the other third-party candidates are included in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, according to the RCP averages.

Trump’s lead over Biden jumps from 5.2 points to six points in Arizona; three points to six points in Nevada; 0.8 points to 2.7 points in Wisconsin; 0.2 points to two points in Pennsylvania; 4.4 points to 6.7 points in North Carolina; and 5.2 points to 7.4 points in Georgia.

All of these battleground states were won by less than three points last cycle.

In these states, Kennedy boasts anywhere from 5.5% to 10.3% support, according to the RCP averages. Nationally, the independent pulls in 10.3% of the share in a five-way race, as well as 12.3% when just he, Trump and Biden are on the ballot.

The polling trend is distinct from surveys conducted just days after Kennedy announced his switch to run as an independent.

A NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey released on Oct. 17 found Biden leading Trump by three points for a head-to-head matchup. The president’s margin grew to seven points with Kennedy on the ballot, with the independent garnering 16% support.

Other polling during the same time frame yielded similar results, including a Quinnipiac poll released on Nov. 1.

Political operatives and elections experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that Kennedy is likely pulling more support from Biden than Trump due to his family’s legacy and name, as well as the president’s base of support being weaker than the former’s.

“Biden’s 2020 victory was fueled by rampant media and tech bias, some of which has since been exposed and marginalized and — even with those foul winds at his back — Biden only won narrowly,” Mark Weaver, a veteran Republican strategist, told the DCNF. “Many Biden voters with fond memories of the Democrat Party’s most iconic family name will first window shop and then proceed into the store to buy the Kennedy brand. Most Trump base voters will glance in the front window and keep on walking down to the Trump Super Center.”

Charles Bullock, elections expert and political science professor at the University of Georgia, believes that Democrats will seek to inform their voters of Kennedy’s policies to combat the perceived threat of his candidacy, as some of his views on vaccines, censorship and Ukraine align more with Republicans.

“So I think what we’ll see is that the Democratic Party now will try to educate those voters, and essentially say, ‘look, this is not the Kennedy family you’re thinking of in terms of where it stands on policy,” Bullock told the DCNF. “Yes, it’s the same bloodline. But this Robert Kennedy is rejected by most of his family, most of his siblings, even. They see him as a bit of a kook, as the black sheep. They are not in line with his conspiracy theories concerning vaccinations.”

Some of Kennedy’s family members have been critical of his run for president, both when he initially challenged Biden and later when he left the Democratic Party. Biden gathered with a large group of Kennedy’s family members on St. Patrick’s Day, where they took a photo together that was shared on X.

The DNC has assembled a team to counter Kennedy’s campaign and other third-party candidates, as well as a group of lawyers…