Forget the primaries, the trials will decide

Gov. DeSantis had the best fortnight of his campaign. He released a devastating takedown of Nikki Haley and her girl-boss nonsense. Then crushed it in the RNC debate.

The preceding week he annihilated Gov. Newsom in the Hannity debate. Angry Democrats blamed the format and FOX news but really, defending California and the modern Democrat party on the facts is impossible. Newsom furiously replied with a host of lies and a few meaningless, and often utterly bizarre, claims. He did smile a lot. Actually, he had a maniacal grin throughout the evening. If Hollywood ever remakes The Shining they have the guy right there for Nicholson’s part — Here’s Gavin!!!

DeSantis has easily won every political debate he ever entered. He’s smart, tough, and well prepared. You see why Donald Trump has no interest in ever sharing a stage with this guy.

None of that matters though. Haley is scooping up the establishment GOP millions, as they understand she is one of them.

Meanwhile, Trump’s legal problems have only made conservatives rally to his side. Mollie Hemingway is a good example of how a huge chunk of Republican voters see the situation. They are not really interested in finding the strongest nominee. Moving off Trump to them, at this point, means vindicating his critics, and all the dirty tricks of the Deep State.

Most GOP primary voters are simply too emotionally invested at this point, to switch off Trump. He should have an insurmountable delegate lead after Super Tuesday in March.

What happens after that though, are the dreaded D.C. and Miami federal trials. If Trump can get them delayed, he is home free. He can win election over the cretinous Joe Biden, whom Democrats seem determined to nominate.  Then he just pardons himself. As President, he is also untouchable from state prosecution.

But if he is convicted, especially in Judge Chutkan’s court, expect the worst. Julie Kelly is certain Chutkan will act swiftly and with no regard for the law, as she has already done with other Jan. 6 defendants.

If you look at what Jack Smith recently did in claiming to have new evidence, you see where this is going. He will use Mark Meadow’s testimony and others to weave an enormous conspiracy story, months in the planning, where Trump directed the Proud Boys to seize the Capitol. It’s ridiculous of course, but at this point Chutkan is running a Stalin-like show trial.

Jonathan Turley supposes Trump would be free on appeal and still able to campaign in November. However, under the federal rules, that is all decided initially by the trial judge. Trump-hating Judge Chutkan will impose a sentence and immediately have Trump packed off to a minimum security facility, complete with lodgings for Trump’s Secret Service detail. I suspect Jack Smith’s staff has some such place already picked out. 

Technically, Trump could still campaign from prison. But practically, I don’t see it being possible. All the polling indicates his support would collapse. Then it will be up to the RNC convention in Milwaukee. The delegates there will be a mixture of party establishment and Trump activists. They would all be furious and unhappy if they had to leave aside their show and demonstrate some leadership in finding an acceptable replacement.

That’s why DeSantis is being careful not to offend either group too much. He knows the real GOP contest may not be until July.

Frank Friday is an attorney in Louisville, KY.

Image: PickPik