As RFK Jr. Prepares to Launch Independent 2024 Bid, Poll Shows the Devastating Effect It
A recent poll shows an independent run by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., which he is expected to announce next week, spells trouble for President Joe Biden.
A Rasmussen Reports survey published last month shows 33 percent of Democratic voters said it is likely they would pick Kennedy over Biden or former President Donald Trump, should they become their respective party’s 2024 presidential nominees.
An additional 14 percent said it is very likely they would pick RFK Jr.
Meanwhile, 14 percent of Republican voters, and 28 percent of unaffiliated voters responded it was at least somewhat likely they would pick Kennedy if he made an independent run.
Overall 25 percent of voters said it was somewhat likely they would choose Kennedy in a 3-way-race.
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So what the poll appears to show is that a lot more Democrats (as many as 33 percent) would pick Kennedy over Biden than Republicans would choose him over Trump.
This would be the case though Republicans, as a whole, have a more favorable opinion of RFK Jr. than Democrats: 56 percent of GOP voters view him at least somewhat favorably to 41 percent of Democrats.
“If the Democrats and Republicans nominate Biden and Trump respectively, and Kennedy runs as an independent, 33 percent of Democratic voters would “likely” vote for him according to the poll, including 14 percent who would be “very likely” to back him.” https://t.co/94A2Yzd1Kz
— Cheryl MAGA Trump2024 ??? (@cheryleliz) September 29, 2023
Should RFK Jr. run as an independent?
Forty-nine percent of unaffiliated voters view him at least somewhat favorably.
Rasmussen conducted its survey of 998 likely voters on Sept. 14 and 17-18. The margin of error is +/- 3 percent.
On Friday, Kennedy teased a “major announcement” on Oct. 9 in Philadelphia.
Save the Date, Save the Country. #Kennedy24 pic.twitter.com/rSSs7flPKa
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) September 29, 2023
“There is a path to victory,” Kennedy said. “The hope we are feeling isn’t some kind of trick of the mind.”
“How are we going to win against the established Washington interests?” he asked. “It’s not through playing the game by the corrupt rules that the corrupt powers and the vested interests, have rigged to keep us all in their thrall.”
Mediaite reports that the Kennedy campaign plans to run attack ads against the Democratic National Committee to “pave the way” in the lead up to RFK Jr’s announcement.
“Bobby feels that the DNC is changing the rules to exclude his candidacy so an independent run is the only way to go,” a Kennedy campaign insider told news outlet.
The presidential candidate told Fox News earlier this month that the DNC has fixed the primary process.
“The DNC has been very public, although its charter requires it to be neutral in presidential campaigns, has been very open about the fact that it has its candidate. It’s irritated that it has to have a primary season at all,” Kennedy said.
Part of rigging the process, he argued was making the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary first, displacing the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary.
Biden finished fourth in the Iowa Caucus and fifth in the New Hampshire primary in 2020.
RFK Jr said the DNC has also structured the fundraising rules in such as a way that Biden donors can give substantially more to his candidacy than Kennedy’s can.
The son of the late Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy could play the spoiler in the 2024 election hurting Biden.
“In a general election, Democrats worry that a third-party run by Mr. Kennedy could draw votes away from Mr. Biden and help elect former President Donald J. Trump,” The New York Times reported.
“We’ve been very clear that third parties in close elections can be very dangerous and would almost certainly hurt the president,” Matt Bennett, a co-founder of the centrist Democratic group Third Way, told the Times in response to rumors RFK Jr. could run as a Libertarian candidate.
Ross Perot ran the most successful independent presidential candidacy in recent decades, garnering 18.9 percent of the popular vote, though winning no state in the Electoral College.
However, Perot may well have cost incumbent Pres. George H.W. Bush a second term, by taking more votes from him than Democrat Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton.
This result is what the Rasmussen poll suggests would happen in a three-way race between Kennedy, Biden and Trump.
If Kennedy pulled even just a net 1 or 2 percent of the vote in key swing states away from Biden, it could make all the difference if the results are similar to 2020 in places like Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.
If this happens, this would hurt Biden infinitely more than Trump. And given the margin of error in recent presidential elections, it could be a decisive blow to the incumbent: https://t.co/EyN0r2cSRr
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) September 29, 2023
Of course another scenario could be that Biden pulls out of the race altogether, given his age and health, which would be ironic.
In March 1968, then-President Lyndon Johnson ended his reelection bid after Robert F. Kennedy Sr. announced his presidential candidacy earlier that month, following Minnesota Sen. Eugene McCarthy’s near upset of Johnson in the New Hampshire Democratic primary.
RFK’s son’s candidacy just may be the factor that ends Biden’s re-election bid or causes him to lose next November to Trump.
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