Why Alabama Shouldn’t Jump Ohio State in CFP Rankings Tonight

On Nov 29, 2022

Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff Rankings show on ESPN should have more attention than any of the previous four shows this year for one very specific reason.

The Ohio State Buckeyes and Alabama Crimson Tide both have their fate solely in the hands of the national selection committee after each of them are watching two other teams compete for their respective conference championships this weekend. Michigan is playing Purdue in Indianapolis in the Big Ten title game, while Georgia plays LSU in the SEC Championship Saturday in Atlanta.

Ohio State (11-1) and Alabama (10-2) are both on the cusp of playoff spots, but likely will be ranked fifth and sixth on Tuesday night behind Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC.

I think there is a small chance that Ohio State could possibly be ranked fourth this week in front of USC, but I think that’s unlikely.

So the big question is, which of the two teams are going to have the first shot to sneak in the playoff if TCU or USC loses their conference championship this weekend? I suppose it’s possible for one of those teams to stay in the top four spots with a loss, but it’s far more probable they would fall out if they can’t win the Big 12 or PAC-12 championships.

Should Alabama Jump Ohio State In The CFP Rankings?

This is the biggest question that Ohio State fans are wrestling with this afternoon. While we have often seen a bias towards the SEC in recent years, I think Ohio State’s case to be ranked ahead of Alabama is quite strong. In fact, I’ll go as far as to say I’d be shocked if the Crimson Tide leaped ahead of the Buckeyes tonight.

Ohio State has two very high quality wins, including a top-10 road victory at Penn State (one of the toughest stadiums to play in anywhere in the country). The early season victory over Notre Dame continues to look better and better, even though the Irish lost in Southern California last weekend.

Alabama’s two best wins are against teams barely ranked inside the top-25. Yes, their two losses were painfully close games, losing at the gun to Tennessee and LSU. But they have not looked nearly as dominant this season and frankly, they should have lost to Texas in Week 2. Three of their “signature” wins are games against two mediocre teams and one good team, all of them by less than a touchdown.

Emeka Egbuka makes a catch vs. Michigan

Ohio State won all 11 of it’s games by double-digit scores and they feature one of the top offenses in the country again this year.

Many of their statistics are in the same vicinity of one another, but I don’t see any reason for the committee to decisively put 2-loss ‘Bama ahead of the 1-loss Buckeyes – especially when no 2-loss team has ever made the playoffs.

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Ohio State and Alabama are unquestionably two of the most talented teams in the country and if the playoffs were all about bringing in the most talented groups, they’d be in. But results matter, and I don’t see how Alabama gets in this year – certainly not ahead of the Buckeyes.

Why Alabama Shouldn’t Jump Ohio State in CFP Rankings Tonight

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