The top 10 Senate races to determine the chamber’s control : NPR

Pennsylvania Democratic U.S. Senate nominee John Fetterman, left, has so far maintained a polling edge over Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz, as Democrats try to take over the swing state’s seat.

Nate Smallwood/Getty Images; Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call Inc. via Getty Images

hide caption

toggle caption

Nate Smallwood/Getty Images; Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call Inc. via Getty Images

Pennsylvania Democratic U.S. Senate nominee John Fetterman, left, has so far maintained a polling edge over Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz, as Democrats try to take over the swing state’s seat.

Nate Smallwood/Getty Images; Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call Inc. via Getty Images

At this point, control of the U.S. Senate next year looks like a jump ball.

Four months ago — the last time we wrote about the top 10 seats most likely to change hands — Republicans were growing confident they would win the chamber.

But a lot has changed in that time.

The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade has boosted Democratic enthusiasm (and fundraising); a handful of hardline or untested Republican challengers won their primaries; and the Jan. 6 committee hearings and the FBI search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida home have put him front and center yet again, threatening to make the election a choice rather than a referendum on President Biden and Democratic governance.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell noted last week that “candidate quality” could hamper Republicans’ ability to win the chamber.

“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” the Kentucky senator said in his home state. “Senate races are just different, they’re statewide. Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”

It’s all giving Democrats hope of retaining the 50-50 Senate, which they narrowly control with Vice President Harris casting tie-breaking votes. But inflation remains the top concern for many voters, especially independents, and Biden continues to be unpopular — though many Democratic candidates are outperforming his approval.

Here’s where things stand in the key races, in order of most likely to flip:

1. Pennsylvania (Previous: 1)
2. Georgia (Previous: 2)
3. Arizona (Previous: 5)
4. Nevada (Previous: 3)
5. Wisconsin (Previous: 4)
6. New Hampshire (Previous: 6)
7. North Carolina (Previous: 7)
8. Ohio (Previous: 8)
9. Florida (Previous: 9)
10. Colorado (Previous: 10)

1. Pennsylvania (R-Open)

Democrat John Fetterman has held up well so far against Trump-backed TV doctor Mehmet Oz, despite suffering a stroke that kept him off the campaign trail for months. Fetterman is better liked, and he’s pounded Oz’s residency and wealth on social media. Oz, on the other hand, is coming off a bruising primary and hasn’t quite found his footing.

Still, Oz is in striking distance. For him to improve his odds, he will need to pierce Fetterman’s brand, as Republicans try to figure out the best issue set to stick to Fetterman. Some operatives believe it’s not tying the tough-talking, burly former mayor to left-wing politics, like Medicare for All or the democratic socialism of Sen. Bernie Sanders, but fracking and crime. So far, that message hasn’t taken hold.

2. Georgia (D-Warnock)

Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, left, aims to fend off a challenge from political newcomer Herschel Walker.

Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images; James Gilbert/Getty Images

hide caption

toggle caption

Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images; James Gilbert/Getty Images

Very little separates the next four races, which are all expected to be extremely tight.

Georgia has remained close, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock has done well so far. Republicans acknowledge that earlier efforts to try and paint Warnock as a “radical” were a mistake. It’s tough to make the pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church — the same post once held by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. — whose ads have featured him smiling with a beagle, look like a bad guy. Instead, the attacks to come are more likely to be simply making Warnock out to be a Democrat whose votes are out of step with Georgia.

But Georgia is about as purple as it comes now, and Warnock’s Trump-backed opponent, Herschel Walker, has his issues as a candidate. Still, the former NFL and University of Georgia running back has high name ID and appeal among Republicans. And Walker will likely benefit from the gubernatorial race of Republican Brian Kemp, who is currently favored to win reelection. This one will likely be a nail-biter.

3. Arizona (D-Kelly)

Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly has a lead in the polls and has struck a moderate profile in this state Biden won narrowly. Plus, Trump-endorsed Republican Blake Masters won his primary and backs Trump’s election lies. But this is Arizona, and operatives in both parties expect this race to tighten. Masters has landed in controversy on multiple topics, but Democrats have chosen to focus on his hardline stance on abortion. In fact, one of the first ads run against him after the primary was on that, showing what a salient issue Democrats think it is, especially with independents, which are so crucial in this state.

But Republicans see inflation and immigration as the two most important issues. Plus, Masters is already making a tonal shift now that he’s in the general election. Republicans also outnumber Democrats in the state by about 147,000, and with a third of the state not identifying with either party, independents are key for Kelly. Democrats have been able to win over independents in recent Senate elections in the state, but it’s a tougher task in the first midterm of an unpopular Democratic president.

4. Nevada (D-Cortez Masto)

Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is the first Latina elected senator, while Republican Adam Laxalt is a political scion in Nevada.

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images; John Locher/AP

hide caption

toggle caption

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images; John Locher/AP

Nevada’s political leaning and demographics — with substantial Latino and Asian American populations — tend to favor Democrats. But Republicans continue to doubt the strength of incumbent freshman Catherine Cortez Masto’s candidacy.

Democrats, on the other hand, think Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected senator, has run a good campaign so far, focusing on local issues, like helping get drought funding in the Democratic-passed Inflation Reduction Act.

Democrats outnumber Republicans in Nevada by tens of thousands of voters, and Democrats think abortion will fire up their voters to head to the polls. Republican Adam Laxalt is a controversial candidate who has backed Trump’s election lies, but he is a former attorney general who is also a political scion in the state. (His grandfather, Paul Laxalt, was a senator and governor.)

5. Wisconsin (R-Johnson)

Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is not very well liked in the state and has landed in numerous controversies related to the coronavirus vaccine and his ties to Trump and the Jan. 6 insurrection. Johnson hardly cuts the image of the vanilla businessman that helped him first win his seat in 2010. An early poll shows he could be in trouble, but Republicans are feeling positive about his chances. They say Johnson is doing a good job raising money and running a strong campaign, doing the groundwork, even reaching out to the small share of Latinos in the state.

The Democrat here is Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who is less well known, though he has won statewide. While Democrats want to make this about Johnson, Republicans will seek to paint Barnes as progressive as anyone in the state, particularly on crime and ties to the “defund the police” and “defund ICE”…