How will blacks vote in November?
Having switched from a three-month aggregation of blacks’ “voting intentions” subset of polls, because some were outdated, to now monthly, the number of such polls will of course be less, and open to the criticism that such lower numbers would not be correctly representational.
That is a fair comment. On the other hand, the March aggregate is almost the same as the previous quarterly number of 20.9% across 27 polls, so that may be viewed as a continuum.
The March numbers include extremes at both the high (Rasmussen, 35%) and low levels (Daily Kos/Civiqs, 8%), which again could reflect the small number of polls available, but the aggregation smoothes these out — most gratifyingly, in my opinion.
If on Election Day Trump receives anywhere near these levels of support from black voters, it is hard to see how he would not sweep the core states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Here are six polls with a subset of black voters’ intentions/support for Trump, March 2024, aggregate 19.1%.
March 24–26, Economist/YouGov, 14%
March 9–12, Daily Kos/Civiqs, 8%
March 5–7, Rasmussen, 35%
Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.
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