Should Anyone Be Kicking an Extra Point in Overtime?

Super Bowl LVIII made history by being the first big game to be decided under the NFL‘s new playoff overtime rules. San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is getting absolutely roasted — perhaps a bit excessively — for winning the coin toss and opting to take the ball. Now, to be clear, it’s a major problem that his players were oblivious to what was going on while Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid apparently had his team studying up on all this during the cruel summer.

We all know what happened. The Niners’ opening drive bogged down and they had to settle for a field goal. Patrick Mahomes then converted a fourth down with his legs and eventually found Mecole Hardman with the game-winning score. There’s been a deluge of television segments on this where self-assured pundits are putting the entire loss on this decision even as some of them probably didn’t even grasp what was happening in real time. That’s just how things work.

A clear consensus opinion has emerged. It’s better to have the ball second. Shanahan is not stupid for wanting to potentially go two-for-one and win on the third possession. If Mahomes fumbles the snap on his do-or-die run, no one is talking about this. Chiefs players have stated they intended to go for the two-point conversion and the outright win instead of kicking it back to San Francisco. That’s really easy to say after just winning the Super Bowl and if I know anything there will be an all-out freakout if some team ever loses the biggest event on the planet because they kept their placekicker on the sidelines and went for hell or glory. But it makes all the sense in the world to put it on one play instead of giving the other team a chance to win simply by crossing midfield and booting a long field goal.

Point is, 36 hours or so after we all tried to figure it out in real-time, we sort of understand what best practices are for the next time. Which has to be a tremendous relief to all NFL coaches who do not wish to live in this particular hell of second guesses.

Play defense first so you know what’s required. Take advantage of knowing it can take four tries to get a first down. Go for two if you score a touchdown. Easy enough to understand.

But what’s more interesting is the decision the team with the first possession has if they have the good fortune of finding the end zone. It feels like most teams are going to kick the extra point. Should they, though?

Because I think I’d also go for two if I knew my opponent was going to go for two. If the only advantage to going first is potentially getting a third possession, the only way to get is is by putting 8 up on the board instead of 7. Maybe this is crazy and watching Dan Campbell has smoothed my brain beyond repair.

Here’s how I justify it. If the second team fails on their two-point try, the game is over and they lose. If the first team fails, all they need to do is prevent a touchdown. It’s a less stressful play run with all the momentum. And if it works your defense knows it cannot lose the game — potentially allowing for riskier aggression.

Someone tell me if I’m wrong. That’s fine. Whatever gets us all to a point where we understand what should be happening.