What to know about America’s ‘life expectancy problem’

When I saw this opinion piece in the WaPo, I thought it would be a good idea to analyze health care expenses versus life expectancy.  I discovered a lot of interesting facts.  I am sure the media will not do an analysis like this.  It seems that their theory, like most Democrats, is that we should just continue to spend more as we transfer more control to the government. 

America has a life expectancy crisis. But it’s not a political priority.

No national strategy exists to reverse a years-long slide that has left the United States trailing peer nations in life expectancy.

I found that life expectancy in the U.S went from 39.4 in 1860 to 69.7 in 1960, up almost 80 percent, while spending equaled $143 per person in 1960.  This was before Medicare and Medicaid, and health insurance was certainly not comprehensive. 

In 1960, aggregate health expenditures in the U.S. totaled $27 billion; in 2003, the figure stood at nearly $1.7 trillion  a 63-fold rise. In contrast, the U.S. population grew by only 51 percent. Health expenditures per capita (or per person) rose from $143 in 1960 to $5,670 in 2003  a 40-fold rise. General inflation pushed up prices of goods and services in the economy by 5-fold. In contrast, the recorded rise in prices for medical care was 12-fold, driven mostly by increases in hospital charges and doctors fees.[1] The overall economic dimensions of the growth have been equally impressive, with the share of the economy devoted to health care tripling over the period, rising from approximately 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1960 to over 15 percent in 2003.

By 1980, when Medicare and Medicaid were in effect, health care spending was rising substantially, yet life expectancy went up four years, or under 6% improvement over 1960.  Medical spending was still under 10%.

The United States spent an estimated $247 billion tor health care in 1980 (Figure 1), an amount equal to 9.4 percent of the Gross National Product (GNP)

U.S. spending for health care has been on a relentless upward path — reaching $2.5 trillion in the aggregate, $8,100 per person, and 17.6 percent of GDP in 2009.  

By 2009, before Obamacare, spending as a percent of GDP had almost doubled, yet we got only 3.18 years of extra life expectancy. 

U.S. health care spending grew 4.1 percent in 2022, reaching $4.5 trillion or $13,493 per person.  As a share of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product, health spending accounted for 17.3 percent.

Life expectancy 1860: 39.4 — This was before we used many natural resources to greatly improve our quality and length of life. 

Life expectancy 1960: 69.7

Life expectancy 1980: 73.7

Life expectancy 1999: 76.58

In the ten years before Obamacare was passed we picked up 1.81 years of life expectancy

Life expectancy 2009: 78.39 years

In the ten years after Obamacare passed, and before COVID, life expectancy gained only 0.4 years. 

Life expectancy 2019: 78.79

Life expectancy 2023: 79.11

Summary: It is hard to spot great trends from medical care consuming such a high percentage of the economy today, after Medicare, Medicaid, and Obamacare, versus 1960.

The big bang for the buck is in the last 160 years, where the use of coal, oil, and natural gas has a tremendous correlation with the doubling of life expectancy. 

Why would we ever seek to destroy industries that have produced such great benefit based on computer models, which are easy to manipulate, and when previous dire predictions have been woefully wrong?

Image via Raw Pixel.