‘Playing Spoiler’: Multiple Third-Party Candidates Could Spell Bad News For

• Multiple third-party candidates could sway the 2024 presidential election in key battleground states if there’s a rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, political observers and polling analysts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
• Green Party candidate Cornel West, a Libertarian Party candidate, a No Labels candidate and likely Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could all be on the ballot in 2024, which could siphon off more support from Biden than Trump, polling analysts and political strategists told the DCNF.
• “I can imagine a world in which we have two, three, four legitimate third parties, and unlike usual, all in they’ll get 1%, 2%, they might get 5% or 6% — and that, without a doubt, is going to be the most important element of this election,” Mike McKenna, GOP consultant and president of MWR Strategies, told the DCNF.

With another close presidential election expected in 2024, third parties are likely to impact the general election in key battleground states if there’s a rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, polling analysts and political observers told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Multiple third-party candidates could be on the ballot in 2024, including a Green Party candidate, a No Labels candidate, a Libertarian Party candidate and likely Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an independent. Several polling analysts and political strategists believe that the additional third-party candidates will likely siphon off more support from Biden, which could allow Trump to return to the White House in 2024, they told the DCNF.

“If there is a rematch between Biden and Trump, there are going to be a significant number of voters who hold negative views of both candidates, given that both have favorability numbers only around 40% and unfavorability over 50%. Those are conditions ripe for heightened third-party voting,” Kyle Kondik, nonpartisan polling analyst and managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told the DCNF. “I wouldn’t expect the third-party vote to be all that large, but the margins in key states are likely to be so small that the third-party candidates could end up playing spoiler.”

Cornel West is running for the Green Party nomination, many are running for the Libertarian Party nomination and centrist organization No Labels is considering running a third-party ticket in 2024, with West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin often mentioned as a potential contender. Kennedy, who is currently seeking the Democratic Party nomination, is expected to switch his party affiliation to run as an independent in Philadelphia on Oct. 9.

Many attribute Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2016 to Green Party candidate Jill Stein, arguing if Stein’s votes went to Clinton, Trump wouldn’t have won. Some have signaled a similar phenomenon is likely to play out in 2024, but at a larger scale with the potential for more third-party candidates on the ballot, they told the DCNF.

“Jill Stein did win enough votes to tip Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to President Trump…third parties have a long history of spoiling,” Bruce Mehlman, political analyst and founder of Mehlman Consulting, told the DCNF. “The calculus by most observers appears to be that while Joe Biden has a slightly higher ceiling than Donald Trump, he also has a lower floor than Donald Trump. And the fear among Democrats is that a third party will take more voters from Biden than they will take from Trump.”

Mike McKenna, GOP consultant and president of MWR Strategies, echoed Mehlman’s sentiment, and told the DCNF the “fundamental reason” Clinton lost was due to Stein’s candidacy.

“The election in 2024 looks remarkably similar, with one important exception, and that is 70% of the voters don’t want either of these guys to run,” said McKenna. “I can imagine a world in which we have two, three, four legitimate third parties, and unlike usual, all in they’ll get 1%, 2%, they might get 5% or 6% — and that, without a doubt, is going to be the most important element of this election.”

McKenna added that because Biden’s support is “much softer” than Trump’s, these third-party candidates will likely take more of the president’s votes away, which is key in battleground states that could come down to a few thousand votes.

An Emerson College survey released in early August indicated that Trump and Biden were tied for a head-to-head matchup in the battleground state of Michigan. With West in the mix, Trump would beat Biden by 2 points, followed by the Green Party candidate at 4%, according to the poll.

Since the election will likely be “incredibly close,” a third-party candidate could win enough votes in a swing state to sway the election, said Mehlman. If 2024 isn’t a rematch between Trump and Biden, McKenna and Melhman…