Shift in Black Voter Support Could Doom Biden’s ’24 Chances in Key Swing States
The lower turnout among black voters in the 2022 midterm elections could spell defeat for President Joe Biden or another Democratic presidential nominee in 2024.
A Washington Post analysis in May of the Census Bureau’s 2022 voter turnout survey found black voter turnout fell nearly 10 percent, the highest among any ethnic group.
Participation in the election among blacks dropped from 51.7 percent in the 2018 midterms to 42 percent in 2022.
White voter turnout slipped just 1.5 percent from 54.9 percent in 2018 to 53.4 percent in 2022.
“The 11-point turnout gap between white and black voters is the largest in any presidential or midterm election since at least 2000,” according to the Post.
Meanwhile, turnout fell 5.4 percent among Hispanics — from 36.5 to 31.1 percent — and 5.5 percent among Asian and Pacific Islanders — from 38.7 to 33.2 percent.
The Post noted that the lower-than-expected black turnout in Milwaukee probably cost Democrats a U.S. Senate seat in Wisconsin, where incumbent GOP Sen. Ron Johnson edged out Democrat Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes by about 26,700 votes, or about 1 percent margin of the over 2.6 million cast.
The news outlet reported that Democrats are worried, given Biden’s narrow 2020 wins over then-President Donald Trump in swing states like Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Arizona could be added to that list, where Biden scored his narrowest victory over Trump by just 0.3 percent, or 10,457 votes.
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Blacks make up just 5.5 percent of the state’s population, but Hispanics are 32.5 percent.
Both groups’ support for Biden has dropped off significantly since he took office, FiveThirtyEight reported. It is down over 10 percent among African Americans and approximately 20 percent among Hispanics.
Political consultant Karl Rove — “the architect” of Republican George W. Bush victories in the 2000 and 2004 elections — broke down the numbers further, detailing what the lower black turnout could mean for Democrats in next year’s general election.
“The Democrats have been talking about this for months and for good reason,” Rove told Fox News on Tuesday.
Biden carried 9-in-10 of black voters in 2020, according to The Associated Press.
Statista exit polling put the number slightly lower with Biden taking 87 percent of the demographic to Trump’s 13 percent, which is a tick up from 2016 when he carried just 8 percent.
Rove first pointed to Georgia, saying a 1 percent drop in the black turnout in that state would wipe about Biden’s 11,779-vote margin of victory over Trump in 2020.
“And we’re talking about a 10 percent drop between the midterm to midterm, so that could be really problematic” for Biden, Rove said.
A 10 percent drop in the black vote in Pennsylvania would take Biden’s 81,000 vote victory to 46,000. And in Michigan it would drop from 154,000 to 124,000, putting both of these states within striking distance for Republicans, Rove argued, especially given Democrats weaker performance among some of the other demographics.
“The Democrats are concerned about the lack of enthusiasm in two key voter groups: Black voters, young voters 18 to 29,” Rove summarized.
The Post reported turnout dropped sharply in 2022 among voters under age 30, from 32.4 percent participation rate in 2018 to 25.9 percent in 2022 — a 6.5 percent drop.
Rove further explained that defections to Republican among three groups that helped put Biden over the top in 2020 — Asian Americans, Hispanics, and suburban voters — could also spell problems for Democrats in November 2024.
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