Celtics trade scenarios: What I’m hearing about Boston’s interest in Jakob

Entering the season, the Celtics’ rotation of bigs consisted of a 36-year-old Al Horford, an undersized Grant Williams and a revolving door of minimum-salary journeymen. But Robert Williams is back, potentially better than ever, and suddenly the center position doesn’t seem like a big concern.

But The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported Tuesday the Celtics and Raptors have registered “significant” interest in trading for San Antonio Spurs center Jakob Poeltl, who hits unrestricted free agency this summer.

Poeltl has been the Spurs’ starting center since coming over from Toronto in the Kawhi Leonard trade and has steadily grown into one of the league’s best rim protectors. He doesn’t have shooting range or the foot speed to switch onto guards as bigs in the Celtics system often do, but he’s a force on both ends in the paint.

He’s 27 and making $9.4 million, though Charania reports he will command nearly $20 million in free agency after turning down a four-year, $58 million extension offer. That is slightly above the deal Grant Williams turned down before the season.

Boston has maintained an interest in Poeltl for several seasons now and is continuing to monitor his market, according to team sources who were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

The sticking point has been, as always, price. San Antonio has made it known to interested parties throughout the league the Spurs want two first-round picks for Poeltl, according to team and league sources, which was the same stance they took on Derrick White last season.

The Celtics were able to acquire White for what ended up being the 25th pick in the most recent draft and a first-overall protected pick swap in 2028. Though Boston lost only one pick in aggregate, that swap is so far into the future the two franchises could plausibly be in polar opposite positions from today.

Netting two firsts for a center on an expiring contract and expecting a big raise seems implausible, but it at least sets the bar high enough for San Antonio to come away with a first-rounder and some change for Poeltl. There is no impetus for the franchise to deal Poeltl, as the Spurs have the financial flexibility to give him a four-year deal and still have spending power.

The Spurs would love to pair Poeltl with vaunted prospect Victor Wembanyama if they win the lottery, and would only move Poetl if they received an offer too good to pass up, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported last weekend. But they currently sit at 12.5 percent odds to win the lottery and know they can’t make decisions at this deadline, presuming they’ll even land in the top three.

Striking a Poeltl deal is tricky from Boston’s perspective because, well, this team doesn’t really need him. The backup center is the ninth or even 10th man in the rotation most nights. He’s a starting-caliber center who is expected to earn more than Rob Williams next season, who has cemented himself as one of the team’s core players. Boston already has to contend with Grant Williams seeking a similar deal as he hits restricted free agency after this season, so how can it justify giving that to Poeltl when he doesn’t have a path to starting or even closing games?

Poeltl is overqualified to be a backup, but his resume in San Antonio is already finished. He can benefit from a demotion in the right situation. There’s nothing he can do at this point to increase his value for free agency starting for the Spurs, and a more limited role on a contender in a major market is his ideal audition stage. He should be willing to accept such a role if it means playing in May and June and showcasing his ability to impact title contention.

Considering Rob Williams’ health track record and Horford’s load management program, there is ample opportunity for Poeltl during the regular season. Horford would likely welcome Poeltl, considering his predilection to play the four and limit his wear and tear with the tread on his career almost gone. Horford is playing 30.5 minutes per game while Luke Kornet has carved out 11.8 of his own. There’s room to get Horford down to the mid-20s and get Poeltl closer to his 26.5, even as Williams’ minutes were finally approaching the 30 mark on the last road trip.

But Kornet has played above his pay grade so far and has fulfilled what the team asks of him. Once they get to the postseason, the backup center is only going to see the floor if someone ahead of him on the depth chart is out.

According to team sources, Celtics management recognizes the possibility Rob Williams could miss games in the playoffs, and replicating Horford’s minutes load from last postseason will be difficult since he isn’t coming off the massive offseason he enjoyed in Oklahoma City in 2021.

There is always the chance Poeltl could be brought in if Boston were to make a more significant move and have an opening in the starting lineup, but Poeltl and Rob Williams can’t play next to…