College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Ohio State takes No. 4; Kansas State, Utah

The 2022 college football season has reached its conclusion with Championship Weekend creating all the clarity we needed to project the College Football Playoff, New Year’s Six bowl games and the final CFP Rankings of the year. That does not mean that the CFP Selection Committee has an easy job ahead if it, though; it’s just that many of them are cut and dried.

Before we get to the rankings themselves, here’s a refresher listing some of key points the committee members consider when deciding a team’s ranking beyond their on-field record:

• Strength of schedule
• Conference championships (when decided)
• Head-to-head
• Results vs. common opponents
• Results vs. ranked opponents

Thankfully, the committee’s definition of “ranked opponents” is different than what you’re used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week’s CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked when the games were played either in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine “ranked opponents;” in fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.

Notice that “game control” is not listed in the criteria. It never has been considered despite the term (or similar concepts) coming out of the mouth of the committee chairman at times the last few full seasons. (The CFP does not have a way to measure “game control” — I’ve seen the data the committee uses — but let’s not kid ourselves: They do talk about it.)

With all that in mind, here is how the final CFP Rankings will look. Remember: This is not necessarily how I would vote if I were on the committee. I am merely predicting what they will do Sunday afternoon.

Check out Jerry Palm’s complete 2022-23 bowl projections.

College Football Playoff Rankings prediction