World Cup 2022: Scenarios, standings, tiebreakers as USA face Iran in Group B

We’re reaching the business end of the World Cup group stage as some of the groups only have one match remaining. So far, France, Portugal, and Brazil are joined by Group A’s Netherlands and Senegal as the teams to book their passage to the round of 16 but more will join them on the final matchday of each group. Qatar have also joined South Africa as the only World Cup hosts to ever fail to make it out of the group stage. But let’s take a look at who can join the trio in the last 16 and what their path is to get there. 

Looking at tiebreakers, the start is simple with the team that has the most points advancing. If two teams are level on points then it will go to their overall goal difference. If they still can’t be split, next up the team that has scored the most goals will be the side to advance. The rules will then be reapplied with only the head-to-head match between the two teams that are tied. So the point total in those matches is next followed by goal difference in head-to-head play and goals scored. If they make it the entire way through and can’t be split it finally goes to the fair play system.

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The fair play system will see the team with the fewest penalties in matches advance. So a team loses a point per yellow card, three points for each red card caused by a second yellow card, four points for a straight red card and if a yellow is followed by a straight red card it will count as five points. 

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Here are the groups including all groups that have played two matches

Group A

• Netherlands: Group Winners.
• Senegal: Second place
• Ecuador: Eliminated
• Qatar: Eliminated

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Group B

• England: Can win the group with a victory over Wales. Can qualify for the round of 16 with a draw or a loss by fewer than six goals and a United States draw or loss.
• Iran: Can qualify for the round of 16 with a win or draw versus the United States. Can win the group with a win and an England draw or loss.
• United States: Can qualify for the round of 16 with a win over Iran. Can win the group with a win and an England loss or a win and an England draw if they make up 4 goals worth of goal difference.
• Wales: Can qualify for the round of 16 with a win over England and a loss by Iran. Can also qualify with a win over England by more than four goals. Can win the group by bettering Iran’s result and defeating England by more than four goals.

Group C

• Poland: Can win the group and qualify for the round of 16 with a victory over Argentina. Can also qualify for the round of 16 with a draw but would only win the group in that case if Saudi Arabia draws or loses to Mexico.
• Argentina: Can qualify for the round of 16 with a win over Poland. Can also qualify for the round of 16 with a draw and a Saudi Arabia draw or loss by fewer than three goals to Mexico. Can win the group with a victory and a Saudi Arabia draw…