Week 13 NFL Power Rankings: Cowboys Crash the Top 5

The Kansas City Chiefs (+430, according to FanDuel) are new Super Bowl favorites in the AFC after 12 consecutive weeks behind the Buffalo Bills (+450), and no other team in the AFC has better than 15-to-1 odds to win the Lombardi. But we’re bucking the Vegas trend and sticking with the Eagles as our top team through 12 weeks, though the NFC race is narrowing. The rest of the league is playing catch-up as we enter Week 13. Now, on to the rankings.

Best of the Best

1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1 | last week’s ranking: 1)

I considered dropping the Eagles from the top spot last week, but in Week 12 they proved they deserve to remain here. Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, and the Philadelphia offensive line bullied a pillow-soft Packers defense en route to 363 rushing yards, 40 points, and a win on Sunday Night Football. Knocking off the Eagles as the NFC’s top Super Bowl contender will require matching their physicality up front and slowing the run game down.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-2 | last week: 2)

The Chiefs can do whatever they want offensively. They’re averaging an NFL-high 1.23 expected points added (EPA) per offensive drive; no other team is above 0.52. For context, the Chiefs were at 1.22 in that same metric in Patrick Mahomes’s MVP season in 2018. They’ll have a big test this week against the Bengals, but the bottom line is that no team is able to consistently move the ball as well as the Chiefs right now.

3. Buffalo Bills (8-3 | last week: 3)

Josh Allen threw for 253 yards, including a 36-yard strike to Stefon Diggs that helped set up the game-winning field goal, and led his team in rushing in the Bills’ come-from-behind victory over the Lions on Thanksgiving. Even as he’s dealt with a nagging elbow issue, it’s clear that Allen elevates his teammates and he’s one of the primary reasons Buffalo holds one of the top records in the AFC despite an onslaught of injuries on defense. That injured list now includes star pass rusher Von Miller, who is expected to miss significant time, if not the rest of the season, with a knee injury.

Deep Postseason Contenders

4. Dallas Cowboys (8-3 | last week: 7)

The Cowboys have all the makings of a legitimate NFL juggernaut and are easily the team best positioned to join the “Best of the Best” tier above before season’s end. Since QB Dak Prescott’s return in Week 7, Dallas ranks third in EPA per offensive drive, behind only the Chiefs and Dolphins. But it’s not just the offense that’s playing well of late—in that same stretch, LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs have led a Cowboys defense that ranks first in quarterback pressure rate and passing yards allowed per game.

5. San Francisco 49ers (7-4 | last week: 5)

The 49ers enter Week 13 with the league lead in points allowed per game and yards allowed per play. They haven’t allowed a point in the second half since Week 8; the next-best team, the Jets, have allowed 26 in that span. Defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans should be a hot commodity for head coach vacancies after the 49ers’ playoff run.

6. Miami Dolphins (8-3 | last week: 4)

We’re going to learn a lot about the Dolphins over the next three weeks as they play road games against the 49ers, Chargers, and Bills. The first game of that stretch will be particularly revealing, with Mike McDaniel pitted against his former mentor Kyle Shanahan as a 3.5-point underdog. All of the confidence in McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa, and the offense will come to a halt if they can’t keep the party going against some of the league’s top teams.

Flawed Postseason Contenders

7. Minnesota Vikings (9-2 | last week: 8)

Minnesota beat the Patriots on Thanksgiving night, but a national audience got to see what is potentially a fatal flaw—a porous pass defense that allowed Pats QB Mac Jones, who entered Week 12 ranked 33rd in EPA per dropback, to throw for a career-high 382 passing yards, along with two touchdowns. Minnesota currently ranks last in passing yards allowed per attempt and 31st in completion percentage allowed—and that puts Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense in a very difficult spot week after week.

8. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4 | last week: 12)

When defensive tackles D.J. Reader and B.J. Hill are both healthy, the Bengals run defense is as good as it gets. Both were standout performers in the team’s 20-16 win over the Titans on Sunday, as Derrick Henry averaged just 2.2 yards per carry on 17 attempts. Cincinnati is getting hot on both sides of the ball, even with Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon missing games, which bodes well for the team as they set their sights on another deep postseason run.

9. Baltimore Ravens (7-4 | last week: 6)

Lamar Jackson is rightfully frustrated. Much of the Ravens’ roster is injury-plagued and lacking talent. Like Jackson, OC Greg Roman doesn’t have a ton of options to work with, but he is struggling to maximize Jackson in the dropback passing game. ESPN’s win probability model had the…