Balance of Power in the Senate

What was the outlook for the 2022 midterm elections?

Midterm elections typically hurt the president’s party. In 15 of the last 20 elections, the president’s party lost ground in the Senate. Although precedent favored Republicans, each party came into the midterm season with several advantages, according to Bloomberg Government analysts.

What were the races to watch in the 2022 Senate elections? 

New Hampshire – leaned Democrat: After a narrow win in 2016, Maggie Hassan (D) successfully held onto her seat this midterm election.

Nevada – toss up, swung Democrat: Adam Laxalt (R) lost the 2018 governor’s race by four points. He challenged incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D), whom he succeeded as attorney general in 2015. Masto was re-elected this year.

Wisconsin – toss up, swung Republican: Ron Johnson (R) sought a third term in a state decided by less than a point in the last two presidential elections. By 3.6 points, Johnson defeated Mandela Barnes (D).

Arizona – toss up, swung Democrat: Retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) sought re-election after winning a 2020 special election to fill the rest of the late John McCain’s term. Kelly was re-elected this year.

Georgia – toss up, run-off: Raphael Warnock (D) won a special election runoff in January 2021 and faced football legend Herschel Walker (R). The race will go to a runoff Dec. 6.

Pennsylvania – toss up, swung Democrat: A tight race was held between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R). By a razor thin margin, the state swung blue.

Florida – leaned Republican: Although the state went red in 2020, Rep. Val Demings (D) posted sizable fundraising numbers. Despite fundraising efforts, Republican incumbent Marco Rubio was re-elected.

North Carolina – leaned Republican: Rep. Ted Budd, a Trump-endorsed Republican, faced Cheri Beasley (D) to replace retired Sen. Richard Burr. Though the race was tight, Budd won.

Ohio – leaned Republican: J.D. Vance, another Trump-endorsed Republican, and Rep. Tim Ryan (D) competed for retired Sen. Rob Portman’s (R) seat. Despite a close race, Vance won.