2024 GOP presidential hopefuls in no rush to jump in against Trump

President Donald Trump is boxing his own shadow as he seeks the Republican presidential nomination — and that’s not likely to change anytime soon.

There’s little incentive for rivals to join him in the ring, according to advisers to potential candidates and other Republican strategists.

From the front row, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is collecting support from prominent donors and beating Trump in some polls of key states. If he runs, that announcement isn’t expected to come until summer at the earliest — probably after Florida’s legislative session ends in June — which will give him time to gauge his own chances.

“He’s not in a hurry because he doesn’t have to be. And he has a day job: governor,” said one top Florida Republican who was in regular contact with DeSantis throughout his 2022 re-election campaign and spoke anonymously to relay how he believes DeSantis is thinking.

Dan Eberhart, a Republican fundraiser who once backed Trump but now wants DeSantis to be the party’s nominee in 2024, said there’s time.

“If Trump is going to be in, I would like for him not to be the only national Republican candidate out there,” Eberhart said. “But DeSantis isn’t going to get in until after the Florida legislative session ends, at least. Anyone that gets in now runs the risk of peaking too early.”

The two-part early conclusion drawn by many GOP insiders is that the only way to beat Trump is by unifying around a single alternative and that DeSantis is the best of the rest.

That’s why the timing calculations are a bit more complicated for the lower-polling candidates, who also have to worry that the race quickly becomes a clash of titans between Trump and DeSantis with little available space for also-rans. The questions of whether and when to jump in are inexorably linked, as windows of opportunity can open and close at a moment’s notice.

Field quickly narrowing to Trump vs. DeSantis

Trump’s early announcement for president — which he almost made before the midterm elections last week — followed nearly two years of planning, fundraising and speeches. His interest in announcing a presidential bid intensified last year when President Joe Biden’s approval ratings dropped amid the souring economy and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. 

Aides say his desire to run became even more earnest as he increasingly saw DeSantis as a threat and, then, as the Department of Justice opened two separate criminal investigations into him over his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol and his possession and storage of sensitive documents that the federal government says he improperly handled in his post-presidency.

But others aren’t feeling Trump’s urgency.

Since Trump’s Tuesday speech, there have been more signs of movement in the invisible primary — the behind-the-scenes battle to line up donors, endorsers and top staff — than a rush to launch.

“People are either waiting or scrambling to get as close to DeSantis’ inner circle as possible — or they’re with Trump,” Eberhart said of the donor class.

In the world of GOP elites, the field is quickly narrowing to Trump and DeSantis, and the Florida Republican source said there is something unique about their rivalry.

“The fact is Ron is different from any other Republican who might run against Trump,” the Republican said. “Ron is in Trump’s head. The other guys aren’t. Ron made a red wave in the state when it didn’t materialize really anywhere else. He won by a historic margin. And billionaires are basically begging him to run.”

In addition to the celebrity from his big re-election win of nearly 20 points, DeSantis has an edge over some of the other possible non-Trump candidates: money. His political and campaign committees had at least $64 million in the bank, according to the most recent campaign finance data.

DeSantis continued to fundraise after the election but has no immediately known plans to convert the state political committee into a federal super PAC that could support his federal candidacy.

Florida also has a so-called resign to run law that would require DeSantis, if he qualifies to run for president, to resign as governor after the 2024 election — whether or not he wins the presidency. Legislative allies are expected to change the law during the spring lawmaking session but they’re “waiting on smoke signals from the Plaza Level,” said a knowledgeable legislative source referring to the Tallahassee shorthand for the location of the governor’s office on the first floor of the state Capitol.

Challenges for the rest of the field

One reason for the other hopefuls to wait outside the ring is the hope that Trump and DeSantis bloody each other badly enough to turn the title fight into a battle royal.   

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