Market Rally Buckling From Fed, Apple, Tesla, Cloud Stocks; What To Do Now

Dow Jones futures will open on Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Even with a solid close in Friday’s whipsaw session, the stock market rally suffered significant damage this past week, with the major indexes tumbling on hawkish comments from Fed chief Jerome Powell.

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The Nasdaq had its worst week since January as megacaps plunged and cloud software crashed.

Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) all lost more than 10% for the week, with Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META), Tesla stock and Microsoft stock not far behind. Google stock, Meta, Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) all hit bear market lows. Apple stock and Tesla (TSLA) did not, but they’re close.

Meanwhile, Twilio (TWLO) and Atlassian (TEAM) crashed Friday on disappointing results and guidance, losing more than 40% for the week. A slew of other software names tumbled, with or without earnings.

A market rally trying to fight the Fed with major tech sector plummeting? That’s a tall order. So while there are some stocks and sectors showing strength, investors should be extremely cautious in the current environment.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live

Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally started the week off in decent fashion but then sold off Wednesday afternoon on Fed chief Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments. The major indexes gave up more ground Thursday. Stocks whipsawed Friday following a mixed jobs report, but ultimately closed solidly higher that day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average still fell 1.4% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index slumped 3.3%. The Nasdaq composite plunged 5.7%, its worst loss since the week ended Jan. 21. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 2.4%.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to 4.16%. The 10-year yield resumed its advance after snapping a 12-week win streak and briefly trading back around 4%.

The dollar edged up 0.2% for the week, but plunged 1.9% on Friday, the biggest one-day drop in years. That likely contributed to Friday’s stock market advance.

Markets now see a 61.5% likelihood of a 50-basis-point hike at the December Fed meeting. The October consumer price index is due on Thursday. The November jobs and CPI reports will be out before the Dec. 14 Fed rate hike decision.

U.S. crude oil futures jumped 5.4% last week to $92.61 a barrel. Natural gas shot up nearly 13%.

Tech Wreck

Apple stock, which had rallied up to its 200-day line in the prior week, plunged 11.15% to 138.38 this past week. AAPL stock came within a penny of its October low, though it still has a little more distance to its bear market lows in June. Microsoft skidded 6.1%, Google 10.1%, Amazon 12% and META stock 8.5%, all to multiyear lows. Tesla stock tumbled 9.2% for the week, coming close to its Oct. 24 intraday low on Friday. That’s after starting the week strong, hitting 237.40 intraday Tuesday.

Meanwhile, it’s dark days for cloud software. Here are just a few examples: Atlassian stock plunged 29% on Friday and 38% for the week. Twilio stock crashed nearly 35% on Friday and 43.5% for the week. Snowflake (SNOW), which won’t report for a few weeks, dived 17% for the week.

Meanwhile, Fortinet (FTNT) crashed 17.5% for the week after weak billings guidance offset strong earnings and a bullish revenue outlook. Paycom (PAYC) plunged 10.3% despite robust results and guidance.

Businesses looking to cut costs may curb spending on software as they set budgets for 2023.

ETFs

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) fell 1.2% last week, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) lost 2%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) plunged 10.2%, with MSFT stock a key holding. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell just 0.7%, after jumping 4.65% on Friday, closing high in the weekly range.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) climbed 2% last week. The Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) edged down 0.1%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) edged up 0.3%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) tumbled 5%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) climbed 2.4%, just below an eight-year high. The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) fell 0.9%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) gave up 1.5%.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) slumped 9.4% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) retreated 4.65%. Tesla stock is a major holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs.

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Market Rally Analysis

The stock market rally had a bad week, with a hawkish Fed and often-weak earnings weighing on the major indexes. The Dow Jones, which has led…