Midterm ‘spoilers’: Here are the candidates who could upend key races

With just 14 days until Election Day, party leaders are ramping up efforts in key races that are set to determine the balance of power in Congress for the next two years.

While Republicans and Democrats are largely focused on taking down their major party opponents, a number of third-party and independent candidates are poised to siphon votes away from them. Despite their low chances of electoral victory, this group of “spoilers” is shaking up the playing field and could shift the outcome of the midterm elections in November.

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Here are some of the third-party candidates to keep an eye on for Election Day.

Oregon governor’s race

Although Oregon is a solidly blue state, the governor’s race there has been deemed a “toss-up” by election forecasters after third-party candidate and former state Sen. Betsy Johnson entered the ring.

Johnson’s name on the ballot threatens to split the electorate between herself, a onetime Democrat, and liberal Tina Kotek, giving Republican contender Christine Drazan a path to victory. A GOP victory in November would mark the first time a Republican won control of Oregon’s governor’s mansion in roughly four decades.

Polling has been tight between Kotek and Drazan, with the Republican candidate leading in most major polls. A recent survey from Data for Progress shows her leading Kotek 43% to 42%, with Johnson pulling in 12%.

Georgia Senate race

One of the most consequential Senate races of the midterm cycle, the contest in Georgia could very well determine which party seizes control of the upper chamber.

Under Georgia law, if neither Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) nor Republican Herschel Walker garners more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates are forced into a runoff election — something the Peach State experienced for both of its highly contentious Senate elections in 2020. The entrance of libertarian candidate Chase Oliver threatens to drag the contest into the same scenario in November.

If Oliver garners even 1% or 2% of the vote, it could deny both Walker and Warnock the chance to nab the majority, forcing them into a Dec. 6 runoff.

Recent polling shows Warnock leading Walker by 3 percentage points, with 46% saying they’d vote for the Democratic incumbent, compared to 43% who said the same for Walker, according to a recent poll from the University of Georgia and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Even if Walker, hypothetically, takes home more votes on Election Day, the same outcome isn’t guaranteed in a runoff election.

Pennsylvania Senate race

The Pennsylvania Senate race between Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz is another high-profile election that is set to determine party control of the Senate in November.

Despite having no chance of winning the majority vote, Libertarian Erik Gerhardt’s presence in the race threatens to take crucial votes away from the candidates as they compete in a dead heat. A total of five candidates will appear on the ballot for Senate in Pennsylvania.

Despite Fetterman holding a healthy lead for much of the campaign, Oz has closed in on Fetterman’s lead in recent weeks, with the Democrat leading by an average of just 2 percentage points as of Tuesday. A recent Insider Advantage poll found Oz and Fetterman in a tie, with both pulling 46% and Gerhardt garnering 2%. Another 4% said they’d vote for “someone else.”

Arizona Senate race

Similarly, Libertarian Marc Victor threatens to siphon votes in the Arizona race, making the contest between Republican Blake Masters and incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) all the more uncertain.

Victor was permitted to participate in a candidate’s debate earlier this month, giving him a chance to attract wider support. Most of his criticisms were reserved for Trump-backed Masters, knocking him for dodging the question of whether President Joe Biden won the 2020 election.

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“Boy, for a guy who’s never been elected before, he sure sounds like a politician to me,” Victor said during the debate.

Kelly holds a slight lead over Masters, 46% to 42%, with Victor garnering 5% of voter support, according to an Insider Advantage poll.