Democrats see Senate as silver lining in dismal election year

Democrats are banking on a roster of strong Senate candidates to help them retain the upper chamber amid a dismal political environment that increasingly favors Republicans.

In Senate races across the country, Democratic candidates have raked in eye-popping amounts of cash and in some cases have pulled ahead in the polls against their Republican rivals despite GOP confidence that the national mood will help the party flip control of the entire Congress.

Meanwhile, Republican candidates in some high-stakes races have opened themselves up to easy attacks, further adding to Democrats’ optimism.

In Pennsylvania, where Trump-endorsed Mehmet Oz clinched the GOP nod, Democratic candidate John Fetterman has seized on Oz’s out-of-state ties. In Georgia, Republican nominee Herschel Walker has been hit with a string of scandalous headlines involving his secret children. And in Arizona, which is slated to hold its primary next month, Trump-backed candidate Blake Masters has come under scrutiny for some of his past views.

“Republicans are not exactly sending their best,” said one Democratic strategist. “Their lineup this cycle looks like a who’s who of ‘why him?’” 

“If you look at the map and you take out those factors, it’s actually a decent map for them,” the strategist added. “In terms of candidate quality, they have created a perfect storm for Democrats to hold our majority.” 

Over the past week, Democrats have touted a slew of negative headlines about candidates like incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, Oz, Walker and Masters, in an effort to paint the candidates as out of touch and extreme. 

“National Republicans’ disastrous recruitment efforts have left the GOP embracing deeply flawed candidates who are grossly out of step with the American people,” said J.B. Poersch, the president of the Senate Majority PAC. “The candidates themselves are serious liabilities for the GOP this cycle and that tells you all you need to know about their chances in November.”

The party is also seeking to promote the Democratic candidates’ personal brands despite the dismal national mood, President Biden’s plummeting approval rating and soaring inflation that hit 9.1 percent on Wednesday. 

“A good candidate with a strong campaign will be able to create their own environment, and I think that’s what the Democratic candidates have been doing so far,” the Democratic strategist said. 

Democrats point to polls that show their candidates running ahead of Biden in. Most recently, a KLAS TV/The Hill/Emerson College poll found that 44 percent of Nevada voters said they supported incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-Nev.), while Biden holds a 33 percent approval rating in the state. The same poll, which had a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points, showed Laxalt with 41 percent support. 

The party’s operatives are also citing massive second-quarter cash hauls as evidence their Senate campaigns are gaining momentum. On Wednesday, incumbent Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) announced his reelection campaign brought in over $17.2 million during the period. Warnock’s announcement followed other hauls from Senate Democratic hopefuls, including Rep. Val Demings’ (D-Fla.) $12.2 million haul and Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s (D) $11 million haul. 

“While Democratic Senate campaigns are posting blockbuster fundraising numbers and our candidates are drawing the support of a broad coalition of voters, Senate Republicans are saddled with a clown car of deeply flawed candidates – and now even Republicans are panicking about the amount of personal and political baggage these GOP candidates are bringing to their races,” said Eli Cousin, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. 

Some Democrats won’t go quite as far as that.

“I’m not going to sit here and tell you ‘oh, they’re in full-blown panic mode about this cycle,’” the Democratic strategist said. “But I think it’s very clear to both sides how candidate quality and the proxy war between [former President] Trump and [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell, in terms of candidate recruitment, from the beginning has affected the underlying dynamics.” 

Republicans, for their part, express confidence in these Senate races. 

“I think it’s obviously wishful thinking from Democrats,” said Chris Hartline, communications director at the NRSC. “Democrats’ spin is that their candidates have a brand that is independent of Joe Biden and thus they can survive the political environment.” 

Other Republicans acknowledge what they say are weaknesses held by some of the Republican Senate candidates, but question whether the Democrats’ message can weather the dreary national outlook under Biden. 

“They come with very real vulnerabilities,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye. “The question is can they overcome it and will the atmosphere allow that to. Is running against Joe Biden at 9.1 percent inflation enough? And it may be just given how bad his numbers are.” 

A Politico/Morning Consult poll released this week found that 64 percent of voters said Biden should not run for reelection, while a New York Times/Sienna College poll found that only 44 percent of respondents would cast their ballot for the president if the election were today. 

Democrats argue that Biden’s numbers, particularly pertaining to 2024, are not directly correlated to their 2022 Senate candidates, but Republicans say Biden is dragging them down as the leader of the Democratic Party. 

“I don’t really think there’s a world in which Mark Kelly and Raphael Warnock can outrun Joe Biden by 30 points or by 10 points,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican consultant. “They might be able to outrun him by five, they might be able to outrun him by seven, but he is an albatross around their necks and all of the money can’t fix that.” 

Republicans say that the gap between Senate Democratic candidates and Biden in polling will narrow as Election Day approaches and the GOP amplifies their effort to tie the candidates to the president. 

“Gravity is going to bring their numbers closer to parity to Biden’s just as voters start to think about a binary choice between Republicans and Democrats,“ said Hartline, noting that Republicans do not necessarily need Senate Democratic candidates to be as unpopular as Biden to win. 

And as for the money argument, Republicans caution that we have yet to see how Democratic candidates are actually spending their dollars.

“Anybody can raise $9 million in a quarter if you’re willing to spend $8 and a half million to do it,” Thompson said. “Don’t say that we’ve seen anything yet.” 

Additionally, a number of Republican candidates have yet to release their own second-quarter numbers. 

Republicans are also pointing to a bleak economic forecast. 

“I think that they vastly underrated what 9.1 percent inflation is going to do,” Thompson said, referring to Democrats. “The median voter in a lot of these states was not alive the last time inflation was this high. You’re talking about epochal headwinds and I just don’t think these people are ready for it.” 

Democrats are hitting back at the GOP line of attack, calling it “the blame game.”

“[Democrats] are trying to focus on what they’re actually doing to deliver on it instead of just pointing the finger at the other side,” the Democratic strategist said. 

Heye recounted the massive Republican takeover of the House during his time at the RNC in 2010 when Republicans won a net gain of 63 seats in the House. 

“With Biden’s numbers much lower than what Obama’s were in 2010, that dynamic is potentially more true,” Heye said.