Election analyst shifts Colorado’s US Senate race from ‘solid’ to ‘likely’ Democrat after

Republicans have a slightly better chance of winning Colorado’s U.S. Senate seat this fall after construction company owner Joe O’Dea’s win over state Rep. Ron Hanks in this week’s primary, a national election analyst said Wednesday.

Roll Call CQ’s Nathan L. Gonzales moved the race one step from “Solid Democrat” to “Likely Democrat,” calling O’Dea a “credible challenger” to Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, who is seeking a third full term.

Democrats spent millions of dollars on TV advertising and mailers in a failed attempt to steer GOP primary voters toward Hanks, under the assumption that the Cañon City Republican’s hardline conservative views and belief that former President Donald Trump won the 2020 election would disqualify Hanks in the fall election.

O’Dea prevailed with about 54% of the vote, setting up what Gonzales pegged as an opportunity for the GOP if the midterm election’s climate continues to worsen for Democrats.

“Not only did Democrats not pull Hanks across the finish line, but O’Dea looks more moderate after Democratic spending that painted Hanks as the true conservative in the GOP race,” Gonzales said.

He added that the race will be competitive even though Bennet starts the general election campaign “with the edge in a state Biden won by 13.5 points and gets to run on a ticket with popular Gov. Jared Polis.”

This week’s move still leaves Colorado two steps away from a toss-up on Roll Call’s scale. Gonzales noted that the state’s Senate race remains less up-for-grabs than Democratic-held Senate seats in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona and New Hampshire.

Republican-held Senate seats in in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida made Roll Call’s initial list of Senate toss-ups this year, though Florida Republican Marco Rubio’s reelection bid appears less likely to be as competitive as the others at this point.

Election forecasters peg the Colorado race as Bennet’s to lose, with several classifying the contest as safely in the incumbent’s corner.

In February, the Cook Political Report made the same call, moving the Colorado Senate race’s rating from “Solid Democrat” to “Likely Democrat,” citing the Democrats’ difficult environment as a factor — with a strong caveat that Colorado’s status depended on whether Republicans nominated a formidable candidate.

At the time, O’Dea was one of five Republicans running for the nomination — only he and Hanks made it to the primary ballot — and he was listed among the candidates the site thought could give Bennet a serious challenge.

Calling Hanks “by far, the most disastrous nominee for Republicans,” Cook added that O’Dea could prove to be a strong general election challenger for Bennet if he survived a primary shaping up to be a battle between the Trump-aligned and more traditional wings of the GOP.