Consensus Mock Draft: Top 3 far from clear in first look after Draft lottery

Chet Holmgren, the 7-foot center from Gonzaga, is likely to go in the top 3 picks on Draft night.

• Complete 2022 NBA Draft order

Some notes in our first look before the 2022 NBA Draft, where the Orlando Magic are on the clock with the No. 1 pick.

Remember, the Consensus Mock Draft is a compilation of the best mock drafts around the web. We bring them together to provide a solid estimate of how the Draft could play out (Last update: May 18, 2:35 a.m. ET):

• In our first look at the best mock drafts around the internet, the theme seems to be uncertainty. There isn’t a consensus No. 1 pick like there’s been in past years (every mock had Cade Cunningham going first last season) and up and down the lottery there is much variation. Granted, this is the first look after the lottery, and things will come together after teams start meeting with players, but this is shaping up to be a very intriguing Draft.
• The leading candidates for the No. 1 pick are Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero. There had been some early chatter about Jaden Ivey jumping, but that was only if certain teams needing a point guard landed the top pick. As it is, the Magic hold the pick and will likely take one of the three bigs, even though they’re well stocked in the frontcourt. Prognosticators seem split between Smith and Holmgren as the pick (seven have Smith, four have Holmgren and one lone mock has Banchero to Orlando).
• Things could get interesting at No. 4, where the Sacramento Kings surprisingly landed on lottery night. The pick here would likely be Jaden Ivey if he’s available, but the Kings are pretty set in their backcourt with DeAaron Fox and Davion Mitchell, whom they took last season with the No. 9 pick. Ivey is an athletic point guard and the Pistons would be thrilled if he slips to them at No. 5. Will Sacramento grab the best player available or go toward finding the right fit for their roster?
• One player seeing a lot of variation is Duke’s A.J. Griffin. The big man appears as high as No. 5 in one mock (SB Nation) and as low as No. 12 in another (USA Today). Between those two predictions, he shows up most commonly at No. 8 to the Pelicans. The Ringer calls him “one of the most talented scorers in the Draft” but also points out he missed time in high school due to knee and ankle injuries. It’s possible teams are waiting to see more on the talented shooter.
• Unlike previous seasons, there’s not a single player in our lottery that is coming straight from international play. The closest we have to an international prospect is Australian Dyson Daniels, who is using the NBA G League route to the NBA. Daniels averaged 11.9 points, 7.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists with the G League Ignite. Much like fellow Australian Josh Giddey, who was taken 6th overall last season, Daniels is a willing passer who could make an immediate impact in his first season.
• Keegan Murray should be hearing his name in the middle of the lottery. The 6-foot-8 forward out of Iowa appears as high as No. 4 (ESPN/Net Scouts), but no lower than No. 8 (SB Nation). His most likely landing spots are the Pistons at No. 5 or Pacers at No. 6. He shows up nine times in those two slots.
• Nine players appear in the lottery in all 12 mocks we survey: Smith, Holmgren, Banchero, Murray, Ivey, Sharpe, Griffin, Mathurin and Davis.

MOST COMMON PICKS

No. 1 (Magic): Jabari Smith (7)

No. 2 (Thunder): Chet Holmgren (7)

No. 3 (Rockets): Paolo Banchero (9)

No. 4 (Kings): Jaden Ivey (7)

No. 5 (Pistons): Jaden Ivey, Shaedon Sharpe (5)

No. 6 (Pacers): Keegan Murray (8)

No. 7 (Trail Blazers): Jalen Duren, A.J. Griffin, Bennedict Mathurin (4)

No. 8 (Pelicans): Jalen Duren, A.J. Griffin, Bennedict Mathurin (3)

No. 9 (Spurs): Jalen Duren (3)

No. 10 (Wizards): Johnny Davis (5)

No. 11 (Knicks): A.J. Griffin, Dyson Daniels, Bennedict Mathurin (3)

No. 12 (Thunder): Jeremy Sochan (4)

No. 13 (Hornets): Mark Williams (6)

No. 14 (Cavaliers): Malaki Branham (8)

Most common (above): Pick at which the player is most commonly projected, with number of mock drafts in parentheses. For example, Jabari Smith is projected to go 1st in seven of the 12 mock drafts listed below.

Top 14 (below): To calculate the consensus, we award 14 points for every mock draft in which the player went first overall, 13 for second, continuing to one point for the final lottery pick. The player with the highest point total represents the top overall selection, which is as follows:

1. Chet Holmgren | Orlando Magic

Gonzaga | Position: F/C | Height: 7-0
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 2 (7)

His length and size make him an elite shotblocker on defense, but his skinny frame could hurt him against larger post players.

2. Jabari Smith | Oklahoma City Thunder

Auburn | Position: F | Height: 6-10
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 1 (7)

Has the size and length and picture-perfect shot to become an elite scorer and the versatility on defense to become a two-way star.

3. Paolo Banchero | Houston Rockets

Duke |…