Experts: No big surge of virus cases expected after holiday break

Despite an uptick in COVID-19 cases on Long Island and nationwide fueled by omicron subvariants, medical experts said they do not expect to see a big surge following the holiday gatherings and spring break.

As the Island’s school districts reopen Monday after the spring recess, Dr. Bruce Farber, chief of public health and epidemiology for Northwell Health, said he didn’t think the break would lead to a huge spike in cases.

“If we see a spike, I think it’ll be modest,” Farber said Sunday. 

Experts like Farber have said they are not overly concerned over the omicron subvariants, which in recent weeks have steadily driven up cases but so far have not led to a spike in hospitalizations and deaths.

Nassau County saw a slight dip in the daily average number of COVID-19 cases over the past week, averaging 463 new cases per day over the week ending Saturday, compared with 475 for the week prior.

Suffolk County, however, registered an average of 406 new cases per day over the past week, up from 366 for the week prior.

On the Island, hospitalizations were 192 Saturday, up from 174 on April 18.

Local hospitalizations remain at a far lower daily rate than during the height of the omicron surge, when hundreds of new admissions were reported per day in early January.

“I don’t see a huge omicron subvariant wave coming because I think the immunity that we got from the large omicron wave in January and the vaccinations is going to be enough to prevent a large spike,” Farber said.

The White House COVID-19 response coordinator said Sunday he is “confident that we’re going to get through this without disruption.”

Dr. Ashish Jha, recently appointed by President Joe Biden to lead the country’s ongoing pandemic response, told CNN’s “State of the Union” that he expects case numbers to eventually decrease, and the availability of antiviral treatments has reshaped the federal response to rising numbers.

“Cases are still important. Infections are still important. We want to keep those infection numbers low, but they mean something different now than they did a year ago,” Jha said. “They mean something different because people are vaccinated and boosted. They mean something different because we have a lot more therapeutics available …  I think at this point, responding with care and caution, but not overreacting is critical.”

The U.S. has been averaging 44,308 new infections per day over the past week, up from 37,474 the previous week, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Asked about a Florida federal judge’s ruling last week that overturned a federal mask mandate extension for passengers on planes and other forms of public transportation, Jha said “it’s really important in a pandemic” to give public health officials the ability and “time to assess” caseload numbers.

The CDC had initially sought a 15-day extension to the mask mandate to assess the increase in infections and its impact on hospitalization rates. But the extension, which was set to expire on May 3, was struck down by Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, who argued the agency had failed to provide sufficient justification for the mandate.

The judge’s ruling led the Long Island MacArthur Airport and the Suffolk County bus system to temporarily drop the mask mandate before reversing course the next day as a state mandate remains in place.

“I thought that was very reasonable,” Jha said of the 15-day request.

The Department of Justice last week said it will appeal the judge’s decision.

Jha said it could be several months before children ages 5 and younger are eligible for the COVID-19 vaccination. Moderna, one of three federally approved vaccine manufacturers, is expected to submit an application for emergency use authorization for that age group, but Jha said it would be “very hard to prejudge a specific date and time.”

Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, who sits on the board of vaccine manufacturer Pfizer, said he expects by June the FDA will hold a special meeting to consider granting emergency use status to Pfizer and Moderna to provide vaccines for children 5 and younger.

“I hope there’s a favorable outcome for one or both of these vaccines, but I do expect there to be some pushback among those members,” Gottlieb said during an appearance on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”