After Trump drops Mo Brooks, who’s now leading the Alabama Senate race?

If recent polls are an indication, Mike Durant is the frontrunner in the 2022 race for the GOP nomination in the U.S. Senate contest.

But Katie Britt, the former head of the Business Council of Alabama and former chief of staff to retiring Sen. Richard Shelby, is polling a close second.

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With plenty of undecided voters left before the May 24 primary, the Senate race between Durant and Britt remains wide open.

And the pundits are split over who has the advantage after the former frontrunner, U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks of Huntsville, lost his key endorsement from former President Donald Trump on Wednesday.

But is it all over for Brooks? Though Brooks is polling a distant third, some believe the congressman — even without Trump’s backing — has a shot.

They include the GOP pollster whose company conducted the latest survey that showed the Brooks campaign fading, and Durant rising.

“It’s still a three-way race because Mo Brooks has name ID, a base in North Alabama, and a knack for grabbing attention,” said Brent Buchanan, founder & CEO of Cygnal, which surveyed 600 likely Republican voters from March 16-17, for Alabama Daily News (ADN) and Gray Television.

That poll showed Durant, the retired Army helicopter pilot and inspiration for “Black Hawk Down,” in the lead with 34.6%, Britt at 28.4% and Brooks at 16.1%.

It was the second poll this month that had Brooks trailing badly. A McLaughlin & Associates poll, paid for by ForestPAC – the political arm of the Alabama Forestry Association, which is endorsing Britt – had Durant at 33.8%, Britt at 32%, and Brooks at 17.6%.

Both polls had 14-16% of voters left undecided.

The polling preceded Trump’s decision to withdraw his endorsement of Brooks.

“Mike Durant currently has the momentum in the race,” Buchanan said. “He has also avoided being popped yet like Britt and Brooks, each hit negatively.”

Big money

Indeed, an ADN analysis of campaign finance records show that Durant has yet to face any negative advertising, while enjoying over $4 million in positive TV advertisement messaging. More than $2.4 million in negative advertising has been directed at each Brooks and Britt, the ADN review shows.

But the crucial Club for Growth Action PAC looms large over the contest. The PAC has played an influential role by funneling millions of dollars into past Alabama Republican primary contests, including backing Barry Moore’s candidacy during a tight race against Jeff Coleman during Alabama’s 2nd congressional district race in 2020.

The group often supports Republicans based on their adherence to a free-market, free-trade, and anti-regulation agenda. So far, the super PAC has spent $1.7 million in support of the Brooks campaign, and $785,903 against Britt, according to Open Secrets.

Its president says they are standing by Brooks.

“We believe he is the only principled, pro-growth conservative in the race,” said David McIntosh, president of the PAC. McIntosh is also the designated agent for the School Freedom Fund, another PAC that has spent $664,448 in support of Brooks.

Britt and Durant are expected to have sizable war chests headed into the final two months before the primary. Most pundits believe the Senate race will extend out to June 21, when a GOP runoff takes place.

Shelby has said he will transfer $6 million of his money to one of the PACs supporting Britt. Durant has over $2.5 million of cash on hand to spend, according to Open Secrets. The Alabama Patriots PAC has already spent $2.9 million to support Durant.

“We have to remember the bulk of the money that will be spent in this race has yet to be spent, so the race could still change a lot even with a Trump endorsement of Durant or Britt,” said Buchanan.

Durant endorsement

Trump removed his endorsement of Brooks while claiming the congressman was “woke” on his views of wanting to put the 2020 election in the past.

Some political observers have noted that Durant has been more aggressive within the past week in regards to election integrity, which is Trump’s signature concern.

Durant said on Saturday that Trump was “robbed” and claimed that election integrity and the results of the 2020 election “are the highest priority issues across the country.” He called Brooks “weak-kneed.”

“My sense is Durant is slightly better off than Britt,” said Thomas Shaw, a political science professor at the University of South Alabama. “Obviously, he has a slight lead in the poll numbers. I think Brooks’ numbers will drop some more and the question is where do those voters go? Durant or Britt? I would probably say Durant.”

David Hughes, a political science professor at Auburn University at Montgomery, predicts a Durant-Britt runoff with Durant consolidating Brooks supporters to win the nomination.

The winner of the GOP contest is the likely winner of the election. Cook Political Report and other rating agencies list Alabama as a “solid Republican” state during the 2022 general elections.

Hughes said he could see Durant winning the contest outright if Trump decides to endorse him.

Jess Brown, a retired political science professor at Athens State University, said there is no guarantee that Trump will endorse Durant. He said that Trump could look fondly on Britt and her supporters, especially if they are funneling campaign funds into one of two PACs that could support the former president’s 2024 White House aspirations.

“If I had to speculate, Trump will watch the lay of the land for a while and see how Durant responds to being more full-throttled with the Trump agenda,” Brown said. “Or I could see him keeping watch over how Britt behaves and if Britt’s people are putting money into the Trump super PACs. He’ll assess the situation and bide his time.”

Brown said that what Trump doesn’t want to do is endorse a candidate who is going to lose in the primary. Trump has stumbled on his Alabama endorsements before by backing the losing candidate in the 2017 special election primary (Luther Strange) before endorsing the loser in the general election (Roy Moore).

“What he cannot afford, in a state like Alabama where it’s viewed as one of the most Trumpian states in the union, is getting behind a candidate who cannot get 20 percent of the vote,” Brown said, referring to Brooks’ current polling.

Britt’s advantage

At least two political observers believe Britt is the favorite.

“From my perspective, it’s Britt’s race to lose at this point,” said Ryan Williamson, a political science professor at Auburn University. “She checks a number of boxes in terms of connections with Shelby, who himself is very well-respected. Her connection to him should serve her very well.”

Williamson said Brooks supporters might not feel compelled to participate in the primary, which could be beneficial to Britt.

He also said that “it’s early” to crown Durant as the frontrunner, adding that he is “not well known in Alabama.”

Some of Durant’s past and business dealings could also become campaign fodder. As the CEO of Pinnacle Solutions, Durant secured over $6 million in PPP loans from the federal government to support payroll, according to ProPublica. His campaign has also contracted with Pinnacle for a variety of services. The campaign says the contributions are in line with federal requirements.

Durant could also deal with questions about his family. Durant, in one of his books, calls his father a hero. An Associated Press report from the 1990s revealed that Durant’s father confessed to the Senate candidate that he raped and sexually abused Durant’s sister for years. Durant, in interviews in January, said he didn’t see the “relevance” of his family’s situation in the Alabama Senate race and blamed his opponents for a “hack job.”

“As Durant become more of a target for competing campaigns, will people pick up on the potential personal or campaign and business-related shortcomings?” Williamson said. “Will that translate to support the other candidates (voters) deem acceptable enough (as an alternative)?”

Jonathan Gray, a Mobile-based strategist, said he believes Britt has run an admirable campaign and has disproven political strategists who doubted her chances about a year ago.

As Gray puts it, the Senate race is “21-14 Katie Britt, and Mo Brooks isn’t relevant.”

“I told her to save her bullets and find a better…