Ohio State is top-ranked team heading into 2022 per ESPN’s SP+ projections

The 2021 college football season didn’t go poorly for Ohio State, but it certainly didn’t play out as expected. The Buckeyes finished the year 11-2 with losses to Oregon and rivals Michigan before an epic comeback in the Rose Bowl against Utah. It was a season that many teams across the country would be proud of, but not the Scarlet and Gray, at least not completely.

As they say in sports, there’s always next year, and that certainly is the case for Ohio State. The Buckeyes bring back plenty of talent in 2022 and are gearing up for another run at the Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff appearance.

In fact, the Scarlet and Gray may be the team most likely to take home the national championship in the coming year. Recently, ESPN released its SP+ projections for 2022 (ESPN+) and Ohio State sat at the top of the list.

The SP+ projections are put together using the following factors:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up more than two-thirds of the projections formula.

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the last few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning in 2022, this category also is impacted a bit by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers. This is a new thing, and I’m not giving it much weight right away, but it will have a slight impact. This piece makes up about one-fifth of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle, but the projections are better with it than without.

Following the Buckeyes are the usual suspects on the SP+ projections. Defending national champion Georgia is No. 2, followed by Alabama at No. 3, Michigan at No. 4 and Clemson at No. 5.

The Scarlet and Gray have the highest-rated offense heading into 2022 based on the SP+ projections. This should come as no surprise to anyone who paid attention to Ohio State last season. After having the best offense in the country last year, the Buckeyes return quarterback C.J. Stroud, running back TreVeyon Henderson, wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and four players — Paris Johnson, Dawand Jones, Harry Miller and Luke Wypler — with starting experience on the offensive line.