UEFA Champions League semifinal bold predictions: Chelsea keep clean sheets,

The finals are close enough to taste for the four clubs left standing in the Champions League but before Real Madrid, Chelsea, Paris Saint-Germain or Manchester City can allow themselves to dream of lifting the European Cup there is the small matter of two mouthwatering semifinals.  Chelsea and Real Madrid sees two of the competition’s most obdurate defenses face off against each other whilst the other tie is all about the attacking star power of Kylian Mbappe, Kevin De Bruyne, Neymar and 20-year-old sensation Phil Foden. 

You can watch all the action on starting Tuesday on Paramount+. Let’s make some predictions:

Chelsea keep at least one clean sheet across the tie

In terms of goals conceded Chelsea are neck and neck with Manchester City as this competition’s best defense. Since the knockout stage — and with it the arrival of Thomas Tuchel — the Blues have shifted up a gear, bruising their way through Atletico Madrid and Porto like some European football approximation of the 1985 Chicago Bears. They aren’t perfect, Mehdi Taremi proved that you can score on this team: provided you are willing to wait 180 minutes and score one of the most spectacular goals this season’s competition has seen, but they’re close.

This is an extremely stout defense, bettered only by Manchester City in terms of expected goals (xG, a metric that assesses the chance of any shot leading to a goal) allowed in the knockout stages with opponents registering an average of 0.77xG against Chelsea in the last four games. If there is a temptation to dismiss this by pointing to their favorable quarter-final opponents in Porto it is worth noting that the Portuguese giants actually made a better fist of getting at the Blues than Atletico Madrid. Across the whole two legs of their round of 16 tie Diego Simeone’s side created shots worth a combined 1.35xG, 0.03 less than Porto managed in the first leg alone.

As the shot map below notes they have faced just three big chances — reflected in the size of the expected goal bubble — and while the shape of the round of 16 tie might have changed if Thomas Lemar had got a boot on the ball when Luis Suarez flashed it across goal early in the first leg, Chelsea firmed up admirably from that moment on. Since then only a Pepe header and a Moussa Marega shot from a tight angle (worth 0.22 xG) have really tested the defense.

Their defensive resilience is not some freak outcome of the low sample size that comes in European football either. Manchester City can attest that Tuchel’s side are a headache for even the best attacks after registering just three shots on target in their FA Cup semi-final defeat nine days ago. 

Some of the defensive numbers emerging from Stamford Bridge are simply staggering. In 18 Premier League and Champions League matches since appointing Tuchel Chelsea have faced shots on their goals worth an average of 0.58xG per game. Only two teams have had a shot profile that was better than one expected goal, the aforementioned Porto in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal and a West Bromwich Albion side that were playing against 10 men for over an hour.

This is an almighty change from Frank Lampard’s tenure and one that happened almost immediately when the former Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain boss took over. Still Tuchel is loath to take credit for it. “Most important is quality, quality and commitment, commitment of the players and the quality explains itself, doing the things which are necessary to do,” he told CBS Sports in his pre-match press conference.

“Can I help to cover my teammate when he is going for a challenge? Do I play my role and be 100 percent reliable? Can the defensive guys rely on the midfielders, can the midfielders rely on the strikers? This is a clear yes.

“It is a huge effort that we put in the games, physically into defending and it takes courage, we play very bravely. Never forget the best defense is to have the ball and ball possession, quality of ball possession, counter-pressing you need to be brave high up the pitch and position yourself, very disciplined.

“You really need to have the mentality to not allow shots on goal. Like you said, we are very happy with the numbers, we produce these numbers regularly and with clean sheets that we have deserved. It is a team effort, it is always like this in football and we are ready for another one tomorrow.”

Chelsea make it exceptionally difficult to get into the box, do not make clumsy errors if opponents do and know where to allow opponents to shoot from. An offense led by Karim Benzema will be one of the tougher assignments Tuchel’s side have…