Poll shows Sununu slightly ahead of, Ayotte slightly behind Hassan in potential 2022

New Hampshire Primary Source gives you breaking and behind-the-scenes political news by John DiStaso, the most experienced political writer in the state and a recipient of a New Hampshire Press Association Lifetime Achievement Award. To sign up for WMUR’s weekly New Hampshire Primary Source and political email newsletter, which will be delivered to your inbox on Thursday at 6 a.m., click here.HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS. The first head-to-head polling matchups of potential 2022 Republican challengers to Sen. Maggie Hassan’s reelection bid shows Gov. Chris Sununu with a small lead and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte slightly behind the Democratic incumbent.The University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s latest poll – shared first with New Hampshire Primary Source – shows Sununu at 48 percent and Hassan at 46 percent, with 2 percent favoring another candidate and 5 percent unsure. Sununu’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error. The UNH Survey Center poll found that in an Ayotte-Hassan rematch, 48 percent would vote for Hassan, 43 percent would support Ayotte, while 3 percent would favor another candidate and 6 percent were undecided. READ the polling memo here.Sununu has increasingly churned speculation in recent weeks that he is seriously considering taking on Hassan next year. Washington-based Republicans groups are quietly urging him to do so, but the governor has said he may seek a fourth term in his current job or possibly chose not to run for office and head for the private sector. Ayotte has been under the radar. She has not publicly discussed her thoughts about a rematch with Hassan, who defeated her by only 1,017 votes in 2016. While support breaks sharply along party lines in each matchup, Sununu leads Hassan by 38 percentage points among self-identified independents and Ayotte leads Hassan by 17 percentage points among that group. The poll was conduced Feb. 18-22 among 1,861 people, including 1,676 likely general election voters, who are included in its Granite State Panel, a pool of 6,000 randomly Granite State voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. According to the survey center, 42 percent of those polled are registered undeclared voters, while 29 percent are registered Republicans and 28 percent are registered Democrats. Also, 42 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 41 percent self-identified as Republicans and 17 percent identified as independent. Breaking down the matchups, Hassan leads both Sununu and Ayotte by wide margins among young voters. But Sununu leads Hassan by 23 percentage points among those 35 to 49 years of age and by 26 percentage points among those 50 to 64. Ayotte leads Hassan by 18 percentage points among those 35 to 49 and by 17 percentage points among those 50 to 64. Men favor Sununu over Hassan by 18 percentage points and Ayotte over Hassan by 10 percentage points. Women favor Hassan over Sununu by 14 percentage points and they favor Hassan over Ayotte by 22 percentage points. A closer look at the Sununu versus Hassan and Ayotte versus Hassan matchups shows Sununu with the support of 95 percent of those who describe themselves as conservative, as compared to 92 percent for Ayotte. Among self-described moderates, Sununu leads Hassan, 48 percent to 44 percent, while Hassan leads Ayotte, 47 percent to 37 percent. The survey center also polled matchups between Hassan and retired Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc, who has already announced his candidacy for the seat, and between Hassan and former Donald Trump campaign adviser Corey Lewandowski. Lewandowski has said he has no interest in running for the Senate next year, although he has said he may run for governor if Sununu does not. Hassan leads both. The poll found that in a contest against Bolduc, Hassan leads, 52 percent to 39 percent, and she leads Lewandowski, 53 percent to 34 percent. Hassan’s vote two weeks ago to convict Trump of the impeachment charge of incitement to insurrection prompted 44 percent to say it made them more likely to vote for her and 32 percent to say it made them less likely to vote for her. Opinions were sharply split along party lines, while independents were evenly divided, with 34 percent saying it made them more likely to vote for her, 32 percent said it made them less likely to vote for her and 32 percent saying it made no difference. The poll also indicated that Granite Staters are already interested in the 2022 midterm elections, with 72 percent saying they definitely plan to vote. And 56 percent said they were either very interested or interested in the U.S. Senate election, while an additional 18 percent said they were somewhat interested and only 5 percent said they were not interested. Favorable-unfavorable ratings Granite Staters’ view of Hassan, a former governor, appear to be divided. The poll showed that 42 percent have a favorable opinion of her, 38 percent view her unfavorably and 17 percent are neutral. Sununu is viewed favorably by 55 percent of those polled, while 19 percent have an unfavorable opinion. But the poll also found, in results released earlier this week), that 72 percent of Granite Staters approve of the job Sununu is doing as governor. Hassan’s job performance was not polled. Ayotte, who has not been on a ballot in five years, was viewed favorably by 29 percent and unfavorably by 30 percent, while 28 percent said they were neutral and 14 percent were unsure. Bolduc is viewed favorably 13 percent, unfavorably by 18 percent, with 23 percent neutral and nearly half – 46 percent – unsure. Lewandowski is viewed favorably by 16 percent and unfavorably by 36 percent, while 19 percent are neutral and 30 percent are unsure.NH POLITICAL ROUNDUP. In addition to the interesting head-to-head U.S. Senate matchups covered in a new poll this morning, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center this week released two other polling reports showing support for Gov. Chris Sununu remains extremely strong while the post-election “honeymoon” for President Joe Biden appears to be waning. Click here.BOLDUC PRESSES AHEAD. While Gov. Chris Sununu continues to keep people guessing about whether he will run for the U.S. Senate in 2022, the lone declared Republican candidate continues to press forward. Click here.TASK FORCE REPORT. A New Hampshire Democratic Party task force that has worked for the past 12 weeks to analyze why the party enjoyed success in federal races and losses in state races last November has issued a comprehensive report. Click here.MORGAN ON BOARD. Former state Sen. Jon Morgan has joined the board of the influential issues advocacy group 603 Forward, which was launched about a year ago to focus, from a progressive viewpoint, on building the political power of young working Granite Staters. Click here.NH FAMILIES FOR FREEDOM. A coalition of unions and contractors that hire unions have organized as “New Hampshire Families for Freedom” and is airing a television ad currently on several cable television networks urging people to call their state lawmakers and tell them to oppose right-to-work legislation. Click here.PROMISES NEW STAFFER. In the race for chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, incumbent Raymond Buckley has unveiled a “Voter Protection Plan” that includes the hiring of a full-time staffer to lead the party’s efforts on voting rights issues. Click here.(Follow John DiStaso on Twitter: @jdistaso)

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