Why Johnson okayed the Ukraine bill

There has been a lot of anguish over Speaker Mike Johnson from the Putin faction of MAGA these days. That is, the characters like Steve Bannon who are all-in on Russia. While the anti-Putin faction, with more clout — Seb Gorka  etc. — have likely convinced Pres. Trump that the holding-aid-for-Ukraine-gambit has run its course and it’s time to move on.

That’s why Trump, who strongly supported Johnson earlier this week, is still officially not fighting what is about to happen with the military aid bills, nor a likely deal to increase the votes needed to vacate the speakership. He may at times try to balance both sides, but he is ready to wrap this up.

As I wrote last year, this was a fight worth making — to hold Ukraine and Israel aid for border security. Now the Democrats have been wildly exposed on the illegal immigration issue, but at this point, they still won’t deal, so time for Plan B.

The best thing that can happen for Ukraine is for Trump to be elected President and force a peace deal in January. Ukraine may suffer big setbacks this summer, given the lousy job Team Biden and the Europeans do in supplying Ukraine. If that happens, Biden will try to scapegoat Trump, and Trump in turn, will have a much weaker hand to negotiate with Putin, after he is elected.

The actual bill Johnson has negotiated is a lot better than what went before. Very few dollars go directly to Kiev. Instead, U.S. weapons from our arsenals go to Ukraine, and the U.S. military gets money to replace those items with newer versions. There may even finally be a Tik-Tok sale provision added on.

If the Republicans had a 25-vote margin in the House, Speaker Johnson could have forced through some tough measures on the border and maybe even peace talks in Ukraine. With effectively just a two-vote margin, he cannot.

Both he and Trump understand they don’t need distractions this summer. Trump is stuck in a New York courtroom the next two months. There is no point adding to this circus with another speaker vacancy, Russian success on the battlefield, or pointless fights over federal abortion laws that will never pass. 

The emphasis this election year has to be placed on the fiasco that is Joe Biden and his administration. There is an old military maxim — “do not interfere with your enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself.”

Some of Trump’s friends, like Marjorie Taylor Greene, do not understand that, but you can be sure he does.

Frank Friday is an attorney in Louisville, KY.

Image: Gage Skidmore/National Archives