Midterm elections 2022: Senate control will be decided by these 10 races

The fight for control of the Senate is basically a dead heat at this point.

All the toss-ups were incredibly close throughout election night, as expected. Ahead of Election Day, projections — which once favored Democrats — began to suggest Republicans had a plausible path to a majority.

Of the 35 Senate seats that are up this cycle, nine were truly in play according to Cook Political Report, a group that conducts nonpartisan political analysis. These include Republican-held swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Democrat-held battlegrounds like Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona — all of which could potentially change hands this fall.

Here’s a look at the dynamics in these key races, and a preview of what each of them could say about the future of the respective parties, and Senate control.

Five states are true toss-ups

Pennsylvania

AP has called this race for John Fetterman. Read more here.

The Democrat: John Fetterman (winner)

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman had one of the strongest polling leads of Democrats this cycle, though surveys have tightened since he’s been hit with numerous attacks on crime and questions about his fitness for office following a stroke earlier this year. Fetterman has long sought to strike an interesting balance: While he backs progressive policies like Medicare-for-all and a $15 minimum wage, he’s distanced himself from the progressive label and tried to use economic populism to broaden his crossover appeal.

Fetterman’s campaign has responded to questions about his health by releasing cognitive tests that show his brain function is comparable to other individuals his age, though they’ve declined to share his full medical records, and argued that his health will continue to improve over time. He’s also defended his record on criminal justice reform, noting that he’s fought to free those who were wrongly convicted and those who were deemed low safety risks by corrections officials after serving decades in jail. Fetterman has pointed, too, to how he helped reduce gun violence during his time as mayor of Braddock, Pennsylvania.

The Republican: Mehmet Oz

Reality show doctor and Trump pick Mehmet Oz has spent heavily to suggest that he’d be tougher on crime than Fetterman, seizing on fears about the parts of the state that have experienced upticks in violence during the pandemic.

He’s also adopted conservative policy positions including support for abortion restrictions and expansive gun rights, notably saying during the recent debate that the decision to get an abortion should be between “women, doctors, and local political leaders.” Beyond his policy positions, Oz has gotten flak from Fetterman’s campaign for living in New Jersey for years and for seemingly moving to Pennsylvania just ahead of his Senate run.

Why this race is interesting: This seat is critical for Democrats to pick up as they try to keep control of the Senate and grow their majority. It’s also one that will reveal how effective Republicans’ “soft on crime” messaging ultimately is, as they’ve sought to paint Democrats — especially Fetterman — as ill-equipped to address the issue.

Democrats are hoping to flip this seat given Fetterman’s momentum in the state and Biden’s success there in 2020. Questions about how voters think about Fetterman’s health have also played a role in the race after the Democrat struggled to provide in-depth answers during a late October debate.

The state of the race: Cook rates the race as a toss-up, and FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregator has Fetterman up by 0.3 percentage points as of November 3.

Arizona

The Democrat: Sen. Mark Kelly

Sen. Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, is vying for a full term after winning a special election for his seat in 2020. Kelly has emphasized his independence on issues like immigration and leaned into his willingness to buck his own party when necessary. He’s also known for being a gun control advocate alongside his wife, former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who was previously shot in the head during a constituent event.

The Republican: Blake Masters

Venture capitalist Blake Masters, who has the backing of tech billionaire Peter Thiel, is among the election deniers running this year. Masters has also supported the 15-week federal abortion ban that Sen. Lindsey Graham introduced, but attempted to soften his hardline stance on the issue as it’s become clear the politics have been less favorable to Republicans. He’s been criticized for making controversial statements in the past including blaming Black people for gun violence as well.

Why this race is interesting: This race could reveal if a far-right GOP candidate can succeed in a battleground state. Kelly has been able to establish a strong base of support by reaching independents and moderate Republicans, though Masters is still likely to benefit from some of the momentum the opposition party typically sees during the midterms, and surging enthusiasm among Republicans.

The state of the race: Cook rates the race as a toss-up, and the FiveThirtyEight polling aggregator has Kelly up by 2.4 percentage points as of November 3.

Georgia

The Democrat: Sen. Raphael Warnock

Sen. Raphael Warnock won a closely contested runoff in January 2021 and is now running for a full term. Warnock, a pastor at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Martin Luther King Jr. was once a pastor, has emphasized his work on reducing insulin costs and support for Medicaid expansion. He’s also tried to separate himself from President Joe Biden, who’s had lower approval ratings in the state.

The Republican: Herschel Walker

Herschel Walker, a former football star, is among the Republicans with serious candidate quality issues this cycle. Most recently, he’s faced allegations that he paid for two women’s abortions in the past despite favoring abortion restrictions himself. Walker has denied both allegations.

In addition to these recent issues, Walker has also fielded allegations of domestic violence, and scrutiny over how he’s misrepresented his business record and experience in law enforcement. Walker’s celebrity status and support from Trump have given him a boost among some voters, however.

Why this race is interesting: Georgia is one of the tightest races this cycle, and could well go to a runoff if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote this fall. It’s also a real test of whether Republican candidate quality issues will be able to sink the party’s nominee, or if factors that favor the GOP — like a strong top of the ticket and a voter base advantage — will be sufficient to save Walker.

Warnock is considered the stronger candidate of the two due to his incumbency and favorability, though other headwinds that Democrats are facing, including inflation and crime concerns, as well as historic midterm trends, could help Republicans.

The state of the race: Cook rates the race as a toss-up, and FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregator has Walker up by 0.3 percentage points as of November 3.

Nevada

The Democrat: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina lawmaker elected to the Senate, is running for reelection and making her support for abortion access a key focal point. Prior to winning a Senate seat in 2016, Cortez Masto served as the state’s attorney general and has been known for taking more moderate positions.

The Republican: Adam Laxalt

Adam Laxalt, also a former Nevada attorney general, has centered the economy and law-and-order rhetoric as he tries to flip the state. He’s also an election denialist and has tried to curb abortion rights in the past as AG. Laxalt is the grandson of Paul Laxalt, a former governor and senator in the state.

Why this race is interesting: Republicans are eyeing Nevada as a potential pick-up because of how competitive the polls have been up to this point. The race is a face-off between a low-key Democrat who’s emphasized her defense of abortion rights and a hard-line election denier and “law and order” candidate. Republicans hope to continue building on gains with Latino voters in the state by highlighting changes they’d make to economic policy. Specifically, Laxalt’s emphasis on inflation is aimed at winning over working-class voters in the state, where the tourism industry was decimated by the pandemic.

The state of the race: Cook rates the race as a toss-up and FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregator has Laxalt up by 0.6 percentage points as of November 3.

Wisconsin

The Democrat: Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes

Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is a former community organizer who has stressed his family’s union background and focused on economic policies aimed at helping the middle class. Barnes also previously served in the Wisconsin state assembly and backed progressive ideas like Medicare-for-all, though he’s moderated his messaging for the general election.

In the…