Staged referendums yield expected result as Russia readies annexations

Western leaders, including President Biden, have denounced the staged referendums, which are illegal under Ukrainian and international law, as a “sham.”

Moscow does not fully control any of the four Ukrainian regions, either militarily or politically. And its war against Ukraine has taken another disastrous turn in recent days, as Putin’s declaration of a partial military mobilization has led more than 180,000 Russians to leave the country to escape potential conscription, according to the neighboring countries of Georgia, Kazakhstan and Finland. The total is likely much higher.

Putin has signaled that, upon annexation of the four territories, he would consider any attack on Russian forces in them to be an attack on Russia itself, potentially justifying a ferocious response. Former president Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday reiterated threats that Russia could use a nuclear weapon.

“I have to remind you again — for those deaf who hear only themselves. Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons if necessary,” Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel, adding a taunt that NATO countries would not intervene even if Russia used a nuclear weapon against Ukraine.

“The security of Washington, London, and Brussels is much more important for the North Atlantic alliance than the fate of a dying Ukraine, which no one needs,” wrote Medvedev, who is now deputy head of Russia’s security council. “Overseas and European demagogues are not going to perish in a nuclear apocalypse,” he added. “Therefore, they will swallow the use of any weapon in the current conflict.”

The referendums in many areas were carried out at gunpoint, with residents visited in their homes and forced to answer a single question about joining Russia.

A woman who lives in the city of Luhansk — the regional capital of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic, which has been controlled by Kremlin proxies since 2014 — said armed individuals had been going door to door and visiting businesses to collect ballots on which residents could check “yes” or “no” on joining Russia. The woman spoke to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal.

Tuesday was announced as a day off, with schools closed, and the woman said voting stations were set up around town for anyone who had not already gotten a chance to vote. People were asked only for their names and addresses instead of any passport data, which the woman said she suspected made the results easier to falsify. She said some residents expected to be protected if part of a nuclear-armed Russia.

“People understand that everything has been decided,” she said. “They think that this will end something, because a ‘republic’ is easy to hit with all of the support of NATO. But people think it’ll be different if it’s Russia. I hear people saying that Ukraine doesn’t have nuclear weapons, and Ukraine won’t shell here anymore if we’re part of a country that does.”

Despite the obviously rigged nature of the vote, Russian officials insisted it was legitimate.

“Both by turnout and by the absence of serious violations, the referendums can be considered valid,” Sergey Tsekov, a former Ukrainian politician turned Russian senator from Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014, told RIA Novosti. “The referendums were held in accordance with international norms, legislation, and can be recognized as legitimate.”

Tsekov also said the Russian government was considering forming a new federal district that would serve as a governing umbrella for the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia currently has eight federal districts.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Moscow’s referendums will not change his military’s defense of Ukrainian sovereign territory, and he has pledged to recapture all occupied areas, including Crimea.

In an address by video link at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Zelensky stressed Tuesday that Western leaders must take “preventive” actions now rather than waiting to see what Russia will do in the future. He accused Putin of “nuclear blackmail” and warned of the potential of a cataclysmic attack.

Although Ukraine has agreed not to strike territorial Russia with U.S.-made weapons, U.S. officials have said that restriction would not apply to illegally annexed territory. Ukrainian forces have regularly…