Biden arrives in Europe to keep allies united against Russia as a grinding war

Keeping up the pressure

After several rounds of western sanctions, Moscow is feeling the pinch. But while the fighting has shifted eastward away from Kyiv, Moscow’s incremental gains have led to increasing US and European anxiety at the trajectory of the war.

At the same time, sanctions on Russian oil and gas have helped contribute to a surge in energy prices, leading to pain at the gas pump. And the war’s effect on Ukrainian grain exports has led to a surge in food prices and the threat of a hunger crisis in poorer nations, a topic expected to be discussed this week.

The ensuing political fallout has led to questions over leaders’ willingness to maintain the pressure campaign as the war grinds on.

“Ukraine is going to loom large, and the big question is around whether this group is going to be able to take forward the sanctions,” said Matt Goodman, senior vice president for economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Zelensky will appeal for more sanctions and more military assistance when he appears virtually at the G7 and NATO. And US officials said Biden plans to unveil steps alongside other leaders to increase pressure on Russia for its invasion — though they declined to say what they would look like.

At the same time, Biden expects the group to discuss steps to stabilize energy markets, an issue one official said would be at the “heart of the discussions” at the castle in the Bavarian Alps where the G7 is convening.

Biden and his fellow G7 leaders have agreed to announce an import ban on new gold from Russia, a source familiar with the announcement told CNN. Gold is Russia’s second-largest export after energy. The Treasury Department will issue a determination Tuesday to prohibit the import of new gold into the US, which the source said would “further isolate Russia from the global economy by preventing its participation in the gold market.”

Finding an endgame

At the start of the war, western leaders rallied behind a sanctions regime to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin. But months later, how to bring the war to an end — and potentially end the sanctions that are helping drive inflation — have led to strain.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who visited Kyiv for the second time last week, has positioned himself as a top ally of Zelensky and insists Ukraine “must win.” French President Emmanuel Macron, meanwhile, has warned against “humiliating” Russia. And along with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, he has maintained open channels of communication with the Kremlin.

That has sometimes put them at odds with Biden, who accused Putin of genocide and war crimes while also saying — at the end of his last visit to Europe — that he “cannot remain in power.” Biden’s Defense secretary said after his own visit to Ukraine that Russia must be “weakened.”

Biden’s aides insist the unity he’s worked hard to cultivate remains intact.

“I mean, every country speaks for themselves. Every country has concerns for what they’re willing to do or not do. But as far as the alliance goes, it truly has never been stronger and more viable than it than it is today,” said John Kirby, the coordinator for strategic communications at the White House National Security Council.

Those differences could make for intense conversations this week, when the leaders will inevitably need to discuss how the conflict will end — either through Ukrainian concessions, more concerted work toward brokering a ceasefire or just months of endless fighting.

“I don’t think anybody can know for sure,” Kirby said this week when asked how much longer the war would last.

Ultimately, the biggest threat to western resolve could be fatigue among leaders and their populations at a war without a clear path to ending.

“It was clear from the start that it’s going to get more and more difficult over time, because the war fatigue is coming,” said Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of Estonia earlier this month on CNN. “New crises emerge, but also that we move on, and if we put sanctions, then, first, they’re going to hurt Russia, but then they’re also going to hurt our side.”

NATO’s new members

There was a time when this week’s NATO summit in Madrid was seen as a potential welcoming party for the alliance’s newest members. But plans for fast-tracking Sweden and Finland’s recently applications to join were scuttled by roadblocks thrown up by Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The delay has led to frustration that what could have been a powerful signal to Putin has instead become bogged down by Turkish demands.

Erdogan…